227 FXUS61 KRLX 281553 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1053 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH TODAY. POTENT SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINTRY THREAT NORTHWEST AND RAINFALL THREAT SOUTHEAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 AM UPDATE... FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NEAR TERM AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AND LOWERING INTO TONIGHT. CUT BACK INHERITED POPS QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OF UNTIL SATURDAY FOR ANY PRECIP. MAY EVEN STILL BE TO HIGH/FAST ON CHANCE POPS IN SW BY 12Z SATURDAY. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MAV INTO HIGHS AND LOWS...AND WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN WARMING. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK SUPPORT ON SATURDAY SHOULD MAINLY JUST INCREASE OUR MOISTURE FROM THE BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR WE WERE IN. HAVE POPS ONLY IN THE 20 TO 30 RANGE. THE STRENGTHENING 250 MB JET TO OUR NORTH GIVES 2 ROUNDS OF SUPPORT. THE FIRST IS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTH. THE STRONGER SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT REAR OF A 140/150 KNOT JET COMES 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. SO STILL PICTURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. BASING THIS DETERMINISTIC FORECAST ON THE SURFACE FRONT TO BE THROUGH PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES BY 12Z SUNDAY...BUT MOST OF OUR CWA STILL SOUTH OF IT. SO HELD UP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT. HARD TO DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY TO DROP SURFACE FRONT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED A BARBOUR COUNTY TO HTS LINE AROUND 18Z AND THEN SLOWLY DOWN AROUND SNOWSHOE TO SOUTHERN WV COAL FIELDS BY 00Z MONDAY. AS A RESULT...TRIED TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. IF THE FRONT DOES GET JUST SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SUNDAY EVENING...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SNOW AND ICE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. I WAS FASTER CHANGING THE MIXTURE TO MOSTLY SNOW ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR AFTER 06Z MONDAY. ALSO HELD ONTO POPS LONGER ON MONDAY AS THE COLDER AIR FINALLY PUSHES EVEN INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WITH SNOW FOR MOST. POSTED A LARGE WINTER WATCH FOR SNOW AND ICE...BUT IN THIS TIGHT GRADIENT. HWOEVER COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT WATER ISSUES. TRANSITION TO ICE AND WET SNOW COULD EASILY BE SLOWER IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INTERESTING STORM ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOULD BE A BIG GRADIENT OF WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...BUT SMALL DIFFERENCES MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN WHAT HAPPENS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A TYPICAL SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA...WHICH CONSISTS OF A WARM WEDGE IN THE SOUTH AND UP THROUGH THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH A BAND OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTHEAST KY THROUGH NORTHERN WV...AND SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO. CONFIDENCE IN OHIO HAVING MAJOR PROBLEMS IS GROWING...WHILE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN WEST VIRGINIA. FLOODING IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...USED A BLEND OF THE NAEFS MEAN AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS HOWEVER ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WITH SOME MODELS STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OTHERS HAVE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM. STAY TUNED... && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO MEANDER IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT NE FLOW THIS MORNING...TURNING MORE E/SE LATER TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-039-040. OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ075-076-083>087. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067. KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...MZ