896 
FXUS65 KLKN 212258
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
258 PM PST FRI FEB 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR DRY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK 
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS IDAHO BRINGING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN 
NEVADA AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEVADA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MOST OF NORTHERN NEVADA AND ALL OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRY FLOW...BUT A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES OVER IDAHO WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
COMMENCE WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FEB 26TH. HOWEVER A MAJOR CHANGE IN
PATTERN WILL BE ON DECK COMMENCING THE 27TH AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER RETURNS TO THE INTER-MT-WEST...OR AT LEAST CALIFORNIA. BUMPED 
UP POPS HEAVILY OVER THE LKN CWA FROM F126 ONWARD. THIS GEFS AND
THE NAEFS ARE PINGING INTO ANOMALIES GALORE. THE NAEFS IS
ADVERTISING PWS IN THE 90 PERCENTILE MULTIPLE PERIODS AND THE
DETERMINISTIC ANALOG PRECIP FROM THE GEFS HONES INTO THE SILVER
STATE FOR PROBABLITY OF PRECIP ABOVE THE 90THE PERCENTILE FOR MORE
THAN 48 HRS. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS ARE GINNING UP A NEGATIVE
TILT TROF...AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE GETS EJECTED INTO CALIFORNIA.
ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT... A MAJOR QPF EVENT IS ON THE HORIZON FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FEB 27TH AND 28TH. GENEALLY EXPECTING RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW ABOVE 6500 FEET.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&

$$

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