298 
FXUS63 KTOP 202129
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight) 
Issued at 329 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

Winds will remain in the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts to 45 mph 
through 6 PM with a tight pressure gradient along with steep low 
level lapse rates and deep mixing. Lift from additional energy 
moving through on the back side of the upper trough along with the 
above mentioned deep mixing from 700 mb and steep lapse rates may 
bring some sprinkles or flurries into north central Kansas late this 
afternoon and early evening through 8 pm. Skies will continue to 
clear through the night with decreasing winds through the evening. 
Lows tonight will fall into the mid and upper 20s. Lower boundary 
layer will remain mixed through the night so do not expect fog 
development overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

In good mixing this afternoon, central KS temps have breached 50F. 
With a good westerly 850 mb wind component through the day Friday, 
expect temps to rebound nicely here. Just how far values go will at 
least partially depend on how deep the mixed layer gets, and their 
are some differences here. Given better verification scores of 
Tuesday's deep mixing event, have sided closer to the GFS in most 
fields, on the warmer/drier/windier end of the spectrum, bringing RH 
values into the lower 20s. Most locations received at least 0.25" of 
precip onto recently thawed ground, so believe ground conditions 
should still be on the damp side into much of the day and fire 
danger in check. 

Weak cold air advection takes place Friday night into Saturday for a 
cooler day. Mid level isentropic surfaces continue to show 
increasing lift Saturday into Saturday night. Instability above this 
layer also seems to be increasing, with perhaps just enough moisture 
for some upright convection to develop in the north. Will go ahead 
with slight PoPs there Saturday night, but still much to be 
determined on this rather narrow and likely light band of precip. 

Still some suggestions of a weak wave passing through the Northern 
Plains in the northwest flow for small opportunities for precip in 
the north Monday night. As the later periods transpire, the Hudson 
Bay upper low strengthens, allowing Northwest Canadian airmasses to 
be easily tapped and reach the central ConUS. Models showing decent 
agreement with zonal flow strengthening south of the West Coast 
ridge that could bring waves into the Southern Plains by late in the 
forecast. Will go with small chances for precip next Thursday for 
this potential. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

MVFR cigs and vsbys with occasional IFR vsbys with snow/sleet at
TOP and FOE through 20Z then improving to VFR. At MHK the cigs and
vsbys should improve to VFR by 19Z. Winds will continue from the
northwest near 20 to 24 kts with gusts to 40 kts likely through
00Z. Winds will diminish by 04Z to around 10 kts from the west
then decrease to less than 10 kts after 06Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53