642 FXUS64 KHGX 071156 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 556 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014 .DISCUSSION... 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... THE APPROACH AND AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFFECTING MANY TERMINALS. LOWER DECKS AS MANY ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY MORNING SATURATED 1.5K FT AND 5-6K FT LAYERS...SOME SITES ALREADY FALLING TO MVFR AT 12Z. OTHER THAN THE S/W PASSAGE...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE AS NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO RIDE UP AND OVER COOL AND MOIST NEAR SURFACE AIR...MAINTAINING THIS LOWER OVERCAST. VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH AN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND A WEAKENED WIND FIELD. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/ DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL HELP TO GENERATE AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING THIS MORNING OUT WEST AND FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS UNCHANGED (COUNTIES LISTED BELOW) WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THAT COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IF MORNING TEMPERATURES DO NOT WARM THE COUPLE OF DEGREES THAT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR SOME OF THE COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN JUST COLD DRIZZLE/RAIN. THIS MESS MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND STILL EXPECTING A WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS AREA WIDE. THE WEATHER GOES DOWNHILL ONCE AGAIN AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE NEXT SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM (SOME SPOTS CLOSE TO THE UPPER COAST POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO AN INCH)...THE BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY END UP OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. 42 && MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL PULL AWAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...ULTIMATELY RELAXING THE GRADIENT THAT HAS KEPT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES IN PLACE. A PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP A MODERATE CHANCE FOR EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN (SHOWERS) ALIVE. THIS WEEKEND'S WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT ONSHORE BY SUNDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURES BEGAN TO LOWER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK THAT WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY. A LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MARK THE RETURN OF STRENGTHENED OFFSHORE FLOW. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 35 32 63 43 66 / 30 20 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 36 34 63 47 68 / 30 40 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 41 40 60 53 65 / 30 40 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO... GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...WALKER...WASHINGTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION/MARINE...31