431 FXUS61 KBGM 271901 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 201 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAVING JUST PASSED THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL ABRUPTLY DROP ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...COMPLETE WITH WIND CHILLS GOING WELL BELOW ZERO. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WITH US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 130 PM UPDATE... ARCTIC FRONT AND ATTENDING SNOW SQUALL HAVE EXITED THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW TAKING THEIR EXPECTED DIVE FROM THE 20S /EVEN SOME 30S EARLIER/ THROUGH THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...INTO SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EVEN DIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO BY DAWN TUESDAY. WEST TO WNW WINDS ARE GUSTING 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SLOWLY BACKING TO WSW...THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...HENCE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVY ONTARIO LONG AXIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...WITH 25-30 DBZ REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR...HAS DEVELOPED WITH NICE UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON...AND IS NOW SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AS EXPECTED. IT LIKELY IS YIELDING SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST AN INCH PER HOUR IF NOT TWO. LATEST MODELS DROP THE BAND FAIRLY QUICKLY SOUTH TO THE NY THRUWAY FOR A TIME LATE AFTERNOON- EVENING...BUT WHEN HANDLING LAKE EFFECT BANDS MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH A SOUTHWARD BIAS. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST A BIT BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE SUGGESTED BY HI RES MODEL QPFS. MEAN 1000-850MB FLOW...AND KNOWN SOUTHWARD BIAS...IMPLY THAT IT WILL STILL FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THE THRUWAY. WELL UPSTREAM...BANDS OFF OF HURON ARE ALREADY LIFTING NORTHWARD. STILL EXPECTING RANGE OF 6-12 INCHES OF DRY FLUFFY LAKE EFFECT IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...WHERE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...ADDED A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH RANGE OF 2 TO 6 INCHES GIVEN AT LEAST SOME INITIAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO THE BAND. THIS EVOLUTION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING...TAKING LAKE EFFECT BAND NORTHWARD AND LEAVING OUR REGION MAINLY SUNNY BUT VERY COLD LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. HIGHS ONLY UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 2 PM EST UPDATE... BITTER ARCTIC COLD...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. FINALLY AN END TO THE CLIPPER FEST AS SPRAWLING COLD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BASICALLY THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD AND APPALACHIANS. A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT MAY ALSO BRIEFLY VEER FLOW ENOUGH TO PUT SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES NORTH OF THE THRUWAY. WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO...WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN REACH A WIDESPREAD 10 TO 20 BELOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY WARRANT ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN LOW TO MID TEENS. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT VERY LIGHT OR CALM WIND DUE TO SURFACE HIGH ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA SO WIND CHILLS NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL FINALLY START TO BE REALIZED A BIT AT THE SURFACE...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 2 PM SUNDAY UPDATE... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRUNG OUT FROM NEW ENGLAND SW TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SW SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA. NEXT WEEK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH. ACTIVE COLD PATTERN WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. THEY FOLLOWED EURO ENSEMBLE AS USUAL. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THU NGT AND FRIDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH BUT STALLS IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. STORMS MOVE ENE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING SNOW SATURDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS SLOWLY WARMING THE TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND NOW AROUND 30. MIXED PRECIP NOT THAT FAR SOUTH SO WILL NEED TO WATCH. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 18Z UPDATE... OTHER THAN LINGERING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KAVP EARLY IN TAF PERIOD WITH DEPARTING COLD FRONT, MAIN STORY WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MOVING INTO NORTHERN TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME, LAKE BAND HAS SET UP NORTH OF KRME AND KSYR THOUGH SHOULD IMPACT KRME BRIEFLY WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. MAIN BAND OF IFR VSBYS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF KRME FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS THE BAND FLUCTUATES, WITH PREDOMINANT 2SM VSBYS EXPECTED BTWN 04Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH AFTER THIS TIME EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND FINALLY VFR AFTER 13Z. KSYR IS A LITTLE TRICKIER AS IT WILL BE ON THE VERY SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND MAY SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. EXPECT MVFR -SHSN TO SET IN BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z TONIGHT BEFORE IT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WITH VFR AFTER THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME. WNW FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO THE WEST AFTER 00Z AT KELM/KITH AND KBGM WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO BRING IN MVFR CIGS. WINDS OUT OF THE WNW AROUND 10KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LESS GUSTY AFTER 00Z, DIMINISHING AT KAVP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARD 12Z TUE WITH WSW FLOW AROUND 10KTS EXPECTED. OUTLOOK... TUE TO THU...MAINLY VFR. THU NGT THRU SAT...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP ON SAT. SAT... && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...PVN