689 FXUS63 KLBF 270924 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 324 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 323 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. WITH VERY COLD AIR AGAIN AFFECTING THE PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS AIRMASS IS AGAIN VERY COLD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 15 BELOW IN MANY LOCATIONS. CORRESPONDING WIND CHILLS 35 BELOW TO 40 BELOW. IN WESTERN NEBRASKA TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 2 AT ONEILL TO 12 AT IMPERIAL. SKIES CLEAR OVER MOST OF NCTRL NEBRASKA WHILE REMAINING CLOUDY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 323 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING FALLING TO AROUND ZERO WILL KEEP THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SOME AREAS. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES NOT FALLING OFF AS MUCH AS EXPECTED...WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR PANHANDLE...MOST OF WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INCLUDING FRONTIER COUNTY. A COLD DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 20S SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 10 ABOVE NORTHEAST. MAINLY SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WITH CLOUDINESS TO HAND ON IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. DUE TO CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY...USED CONSALL FOR HIGHS. A JET MAX AND DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN MONTANA AND BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO TONIGHT. CHASE COUNTY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FLURRIES TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW FOR MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWESTERN AREAS TO REMAIN ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH WINDS TO BE CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...LOWEST WIND CHILLS IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAY RANGE AS LOW AS 15 BELOW TO 20 BELOW. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...850 MB TEMPS OF 10C TO 20C BELOW ZERO WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE TEENS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND IN THE 20S ACROSS THE WEST. WED NIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE WITH RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. A NICE REBOUND OF TEMPS BY WED AFTN IS ANTICIPATED...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANGE DEVELOPING TO THE LONG STANDING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS WE PUSH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A QUASI ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO CAUSE STRUGGLES WITH THE MODELS...THUS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIR...WILL BE A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MODELS IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT BRINGING THE TRACK OVER THE CWA FIRST WED NIGHT INTO THURS...WITH ANOTHER WAVE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH WAVES WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR AS THE SURFACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS. HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WHICH COMBINE WITH ANALYZED MODEL SOUNDING TO SUGGEST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...HOWEVER A FGEN BAND OF MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH EACH WAVE. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT...A SWATH OF AN INCH OR 2. THE WEEKEND BECOMES A LITTLE MORE TRICKY. YESTERDAY THE MODELS SHOWED ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME MAJOR TIMING ISSUES. TODAY MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH A SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ACTIVITY. FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRY WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING US DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL GOING TO HAVE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO CONTEND WITH...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ONE HICCUP TO THIS WOULD BE IF THE THURS/FRI SYSTEMS BRING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS NEEDING TO BE DROPPED A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM GOING FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME PORTION OF THE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS COULD MOVE INTO NRN NEB MONDAY OR EVEN MONDAY EVENING. THESE CIGS ARE HARD TO SEE ON SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SUGGEST SCATTERED COVERAGE SO SCATTERED COVERAGE IS WHAT IS EXPECTED. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR NEZ005>010-024>029-037-038-094. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERG SHORT TERM...ROBERG LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...CDC