461 FXUS62 KMHX 221249 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 749 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY WHILE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 730 AM WED...AREA OF STCU ADVECTING SE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. RWI AND GSB REPORTING LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SO INCREASED CLOUDS AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW WESTERN ZONES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SHOULD HELP TO DISSIPATE CLOUDS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. ISSUED AN SPS FOR SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS AS WELL. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. COLD TEMPS AND ICY ROADWAYS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE TEENS AND EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE ACROSS AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE GREATER PRECIP FELL. ALSO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE OBX WITH OBS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY AS 3-HR PRES CHANGE LESSENING...NOW TO 3 MB/3-HR VS 6 MB AROUND MIDNIGHT. INLAND...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GENERAL TREND FOR SKIES WILL BE TO CLEAR FROM W TO E THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT AN AREA OF STCU ACROSS THE TRIANGLE MAY ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NRN SECTIONS AND LOW 30S SOUTH. A FEW RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... AS OF 4 AM WED...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TEENS INLAND TO LOW 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY REINFORCEMENT OF THE DEEP EASTERN US TROF LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE W/NW DOMINATED FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC FRONT BUT STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS UPR 30S N TO LOWER 40S S. A DRY COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD IN THU NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRI MORNING. VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S. CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL. WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 45-50F DURING THE WEEKEND. SAT LOOKS RATHER WINDY AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS ESPCLY NEAR THE BEACHES. SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH HIGHS UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER (LIKELY DRY) COLD FRONT. HIGHS NEXT TUESDAY FALL BACK AGAIN INTO THE 30S AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SPREADS S INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 AM WED...AREA OF STCU ADVECTING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES AS WELL AS BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 AM WED...LOW PRES NOW ABOUT 400 MI ENE OF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL LIFT NE AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING. OBS SHOWING NW WINDS AROUND 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT WHILE SEAS ARE AROUND 10-16 FT NRN SECTIONS AND 4-8 FT SOUTH. HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING AND ISSUED A SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 34 KT. KEEPING GALES NORTH OF OREGON INLET AS OBS SHOWING WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40 KT. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 5-15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...GENERALLY ADVERSE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS OCCASIONAL REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGES LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS/SEAS. BRIEF BREAK IN HIGHER WINDS/SEAS FIRST PART OF THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WNW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE LATE THU AS FRONT CROSSES...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS LATER THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THESE NW WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 8 FT OVER THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL WTRS EARLY FRI. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATER FRI AND FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRES NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. W/SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER FRI NIGHT AND ESPCLY SAT AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE STRONG SW WINDS SAT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 11 FEET OVER THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW 6 FT ALL WTRS SUN AS WINDS DIMINISH. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 6 AM WED...THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND HAS SEEN WATER LEVELS PEAK AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 FEET WITH STRONG NWLY WINDS...HIGHEST FROM HATTERAS VILLAGE TO BUXTON. WATER LEVELS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO DROP AND WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR OUTER BANKS DARE FOR BREAKING WAVES OF 8-10 FT NORTH OF RODANTHE. LARGE NE FETCH IS PRODUCING LONG PERIOD SWELLS DIRECTED TOWARD THE OBX NORTH OF RODANTHE. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 22ND: TEMP YEAR CAPE HATTERAS 26 1970 MANTEO 25 1970 OCRACOKE 30 1970 NEW BERN 30 1970 WILLIAMSTON 31 1994 KINSTON 19 1985 GREENVILLE 27 1970 BAYBORO 29 1970 MOREHEAD CITY 31 1970 WASHINGTON 32 2011 && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098-103. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103-104. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103- 104. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-135. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...BTC/RF AVIATION...RF/SK MARINE...RF/SK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC/SEK CLIMATE...CQD/SEK