996 FXUS65 KGGW 180957 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 257 AM MST SAT JAN 18 2014 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AT 09Z IS BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN ON SUNDAY AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BRING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN... A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FAR EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE A SNOW SHOWER FROM THIS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TO NEAR NORMAL (20S) FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL MONTANA... THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER FOR HIGHS THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORRESTER. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN IS RE-ESTABLISHED AGAIN AFTER THE PASSING SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES FROM THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE FLOW. A VERY INTERESTING LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DISTURBANCE THEN TAKES PLACE. BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN PINCHES OF A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS CUT-OFF LOW SLICES THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE...ONLY TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD...LARGE NORTH- AMERICAN TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD OUTBREAK DESCENDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U S REGIONS. IT IS AS IF THE CUT-OFF LOW IS JUMPING FROM ONE TROUGH TO THE NEXT. ALL THE WHILE...NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS REMOVED FROM THIS AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FEW DISTURBANCES WHICH MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA WOULD BE ON THURSDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING. EC AND GFS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING TIMING OF THIS PRECIP...SO TRIED TO BROAD-BRUSH THESE SLIGHT CHANCES TO CHANCES YET SHOW A LITTLE MORE DEFINITION WHERE IT SEEMS THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE BETTER CONSENSUS. EXPECT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO BRING LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND. BMICKELSON && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LITTLE HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLY. WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO/BMICKELSON && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW