808 FXUS61 KRLX 081201 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 701 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...QUIET PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS SE KY AND MOST WV BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE VERY SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPS WILL BEGIN THEIR SLOW RISE BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS AS WINDS TAKE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE EAST UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY PROVIDING ENOUGH INSULATION TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20'S FOR MOST OF US...WITH MORE WARMING IN STORE FOR LATER PERIODS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS SE OH. LOW POPS NEGATE ANY MENTION OF ACCUMULATION ATTM. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WX SYSTEM COMES FROM UPPER TROF AMPLIFICATION AND A JUICY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN...ON THE ORDER OF 60 TO 70 KTS MAY MEAN YET ANOTHER GUSTY WIND CONTENDER WITH FROPA. RISING TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT 60 TO 65 ON SATURDAY BEFORE FRONTAL RAINS ARRIVE PER GFS/ECMWF. DIDNT QUITE BITE ON THAT JUST YET BUT DID RAISE MAXT GRID INTO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. QPF AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONGWAVE PATTERN TURNS MILDER FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SALTED TO BRING MAINLY RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ORGANIZING COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN LATE MONDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND LIGHT WINDS. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH NORTHERN ZONES DROPPING CEILINGS TO MVFR AFTER 02Z WITH EXITING SYSTEM TO THE NE AND INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH SCT TO BKN LAYERS 06-10 THSD FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AN ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PKB-CKB- EKN LINE WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE STREAMING THROUGH SOUTHERN PA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO SE OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH DEVELOPING WARM FRONT 09Z TO 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THUS LOWER VSBY THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JM