746 FXUS61 KBGM 010943 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 443 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... JUST LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE WILKES-BARRE AND SCRANTON AREAS... BEFORE STEADIER HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH WITH ITS SOUTHERN EDGE NOW NEAR THE OSWEGO/ONONDAGA COUNTY LINE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY. HIGH-RESOLUTION SHORT TERM FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND WILL DRIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SYRACUSE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE SOME SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND UP TO A FEW MORE INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE THROUGH LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN PA TODAY IN A DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY THIS AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TOWARD EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK BY LATE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET AND NEAR A PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY BUT SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD WITH A DEEP DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION INDICATED ON AREA MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MEANWHILE LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA SOUTH OF THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY WTIH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA. THE MID-LEVEL WAVE REMAINS OPEN UNTIL IT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY RE-ORGANIZE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST. DURING THURSDAY NIGHT MODERATELY STRONG UPPER SUPPORT WILL RE-INFORCE THE UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE NNE FLOW WILL TAP A VERY COLD AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR TEMPERARURES TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL NY BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH READINGS NEAR 10 EXPECTED ACROSS NE PA. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW... GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW FOR THIS AREA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT BUT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE WATCH TIME PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH HAVE RESTRICTED THE WATCH PERIOD FOR JUST LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL END EARLY FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR... CALM AND VERY COLD WITH MANY LOCATIONS BELOW ZERO. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 330 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. SATURDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE ONLY QUIET WEATHER DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE EAST COAST AND SFC TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST MODERATING FLOW. THE PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA. THEN A SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE GFS BRINGS THIS FEATURE ACROSS CNTRL PA INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS IT ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE ECMWF WOULD IMPLY A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION WITH RAIN FOR THE AREA WHILE THE GFS WOULD INDICATE MAINLY SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN ACROSS THE ERN PTN OF FA. WPC FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE SOLUTION WITH SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THEN A RAN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY EAST OF I81 WITH JUST SNOW WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS INTO THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN WITH FRIGID TEMPS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. 11 AM TUE UPDATE... FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MODELS SIMILAR. FRIDAY NIGHT A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL KEEP IT DRY FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. SUNDAY SNOW COMES BACK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE LOW THAT STARTS IN THE PLAINS AND MOVES NE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LOW TRACK WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT A MIX IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NE PA. HIGH TEMPS SUN AND MON ABOVE FREEZING. BEHIND THIS STORM MORE ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SE INTO THE AREA IGNITING THE LAKE EFFECT. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO THE KRME TERMINAL BETWEEN 08Z-15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL IFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. AFTER 15Z CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOW VFR UNTIL LIGHT MVFR SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BY 03Z. AT KSYR, THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z-18Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL IFR BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. AFTER 18Z CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR THEN MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN AROUND 03Z. FOR KITH/KBGM/KELM, OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL EFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE AT KBGM UNTIL 08Z. AFTER 12Z PRIMARILY LOW VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN LATE TODAY AROUND 21Z WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 00Z. AT KAVP, PRIMARILY LOW VFR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN FLURRIES AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON THEN N/NE THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... THU/THU NGT...IFR SNOW LIKELY AREA-WIDE. FRI-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR. SUN...BECOMING MVFR IN SNOW LATE. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ062. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MSE NEAR TERM...MSE SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...RRM/TAC AVIATION...RRM