302 FXUS62 KMHX 300805 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 305 AM EST MON DEC 30 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY THEN MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER OVERNIGHT WITH INITIAL BAND OF CI NOW MOVING N OF AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL CI SPREADING IN FROM SW. REST OF FCST ON TRACK. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE OFF THE COAST NOW. EXPECT MAINLY JUST SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS REST OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 INLAND TO UPR 40S/AROUND 50 BEACHES. MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS HOWEVER DEWPTS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DROP SO CONFIDENCE LOW AND WILL NOT ADD TO FCST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THICKENING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MON...THE 00Z RUN OF BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL DIFFER A BIT FROM HPC SURFACE GRAPHICS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE TWO INTO SATURDAY. BEGINNING SUNDAY THE GFS BECOMES MUCH SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF OR HPC...SO USED A BLEND OF ECMWF. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME LIGHT MIXED RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE KEPT POP RANGE FROM 30 PERCENT COASTAL PLAIN TO 50 PERCENT COAST ON THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL TROF WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FOR SUNDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WARM UP QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGH OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WEAK CAA CONTINUING. PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG LIKELY FOR KPGV..KISO AND KOAJ 09Z-13Z WITH WINDS NEAR CALM AND LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR. ALREADY SEEING SOME OBS OF FOG OVER SANDHILLS AND ERN PIEDMONT. CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR ALL SITES BY MID MORNING...AND PREVAILING REST OF PERIOD. DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING AFTN PRODUCING MINOR WIND SHIFT. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE SCU CIGS LATE EVENING. LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRI/... AS OF 3 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NIGHTTIME BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING QUITE DRY SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PREDAWN FOG. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH VFR/SKC AS THE SYSTEM RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...UPDATED EARLIER TO LOWER GALE TO SCA CNTRL WATERS AND TO DROP SCA SOUNDS. WINDS DROPPING QUICKLY IN WAKE OF FRONT AND SHLD CONT TO SUBSIDE TO MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE DIMINISHING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE AND SCA WILL END NRN AND SRN WTRS LATER TONIGHT AND CNTRL WTRS EARLY MON MORN. MONDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FT...POSS STILL SOME 5 FOOTERS OVER OUTER CNTRL WTRS. LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRI/... AS OF 3 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY WILL PASS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THIS TIME AS THE FLOW STARTS OUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY BECOMING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST THEN WEST ON THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST INTO FRIDAY IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM IN THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152- 154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...RF/HSA MARINE...RF/HSA