000 
FXUS63 KOAX 142046
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
246 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2013

.SHORT/MID TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL. DRY NORTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
AND ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. 

PEARSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

WARM AND MILD TEMPS CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW 
ALOFT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT THAT ARRIVES BY LATE 
THURSDAY. TEMPS WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 
40S ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A SMALL CHANCE OF 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY WITHIN A STRONG WARM 
AIR ADVECTION ZONE. MODELS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE 
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WELL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE GFS MAY BE JUST A TAD TOO FAST WITH THE 
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AS WELL. TEMPS THEN HEAD SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD 
FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF NORTHWEST OR 
NORTHERLY WINDS. MODELS ARE SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A FEW SNOW 
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE 
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD TEMPS REMAINING THROUGH SATURDAY. 
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAD INDICATED THAT MOISTURE MAY TRY TO 
MOVE BACK NORTH FOR SATURDAY BRINGING A PRETTY DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW 
TO THE AREA. GFS HAS NOT SUPPORTED THAT...AND EVEN 12Z ECMWF IS NOW 
BACKING OFF OFF THAT AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE A 20 PERCENT 
CHANCE SATURDAY...BUT IT COULD VERY WELL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION. 

DEWALD

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE DURING THE PERIOD. AREA CIGS ARE
GENERALLY FL007 TO FL035. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THROUGH
22Z...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS WHERE CIGS BREAK OUT TO
VFR. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF REINFORCING
COLD AIR...THICKENING CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW FLURRIES. FOR NOW
INCREASED THE MID CLOUDS AGAIN AND MENTIONED THE RETURN OF MVFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. COLDEST AIR AND FLURRIES
LOOKS TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL NOT INCLUDE NOW.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$