756 FXUS63 KLSX 140755 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 155 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2013 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 153 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2013 Compact shortwave moving from southcentral Missouri into southern Illinois responsible for enhanced band of snow that will lift across the southern half of the CWA this morning. Snowfall rates up to an inch per hour will allow snowfall forecast to verify nicely across the majority of the CWA. Only caveat is across far southern CWA where the changeover to snow has been slow to occur and therefore amounts may be less than expected. Generally 2 to 5 inch storm totals are still expected and will be keeping current headlines in tact. Snow will taper to flurries by lunch with clouds hanging tough the entire day. Temperatures will moderate little with weak cold advection and fresh snow cover. CVKING .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 153 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2013 Northwest flow aloft will be alive and well early this week as an upper level ridge axis remains stationary from the Baja of California in Mexico to southwest Oregon and a series of shortwaves dig from Canada into the northeast United States. Below normal temperatures are expected to continue Sunday and Monday. The upper flow begins to transition thoughout the remainder of the work week as a deep trof is carved out along the West Coast with an upper low being pinched off in the base of the trof across far southern California. This will result in rising heights across the Midwest and finally some above normal temperatures by Thursday. The warm up will be short lived though as the next Arctic front is expected to be knocking on the door come Friday. Have maintained chance pops for rain Thursday night with likely values across the southern CWA on Friday/Friday night. Will be interesting to watch this system evolve as shallow cold airmass with overrunning precipitation is usually the perfect recipe for an ice storm. Little too early to jump on this given it is still seven days out, but something too watch carefully over the coming week. CVKING && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2013 Overall IFR to MVFR conditions with continued snowfall will persist through the night. The loss of ice crystals during the morning hours will probably support a period of light freezing drizzle before precipitation finally ends by afternoon. Little improvement in cigs is expected due to the low sun angle and the lack of dry air at low levels. Specifics for KSTL: Overall IFR to MVFR conditions with continued snowfall will persist through the night. The loss of ice crystals during the morning hours will probably support a period of light freezing drizzle before precipitation finally ends by afternoon. Little improvement in cigs is expected due to the low sun angle and the lack of dry air at low levels. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR Bond IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL- Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL- St. Clair IL-Washington IL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX