000 
FXUS63 KFGF 120101
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. READINGS
HAVE BEEN CLIMBING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE STATE...EVEN IN SOME OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE SURGE OF
WARMER AIR COMING IN HAS ALSO PRODUCED SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM
GFK DOWNT TOWARDS COOPERSTOWN. BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND
WENT WITH TEMPS FOLLOWING A BLEND OF MODELS THAT HAS TEMPS RISING
IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST COULD SEE TEMPS
DROP A BIT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD STAY ABOVE
ZERO. THE EAST WILL SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY START COMING UP LATER TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE EASTERN SITES
ARE AROUND WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT DO NOT THINK THIS WILL
LAST LONG. WILL JUST KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR NOW. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND TEMPS. MODELS
ARE IN VERY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE GFS BECAUSE IT
IS PICKING UP BETTER ON THESE SUBTLE LIGHT SNOW EVENTS EVERY
12-18HR OR SO BEGINNING TONIGHT.

GIVEN THAT WIND CHILLS HAVE FALLEN BELOW CRITERIA...WILL CANCEL
OUR ADVISORY EARLY.

FOR TONIGHT...A VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENT AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
MOVE FROM NW TO SE. EXPECT VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH THE
SOUTH PERHAPS GETTING A HALF INCH OR SNOW AND NOT MUCH IN THE
NORTH. TEMPS WILL HINGE ON ANY CLEARING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS
SUBSIDE...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

ON THU AND THU NIGHT...EXPECT THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AND WILL HINGE ON WHERE CLOUD BAND AND LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE A COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
AREAS AND EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS HERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

FOR FRI/SAT...EXPECT THE ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE AND THE
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND JET ENERGY TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH. THIS
SHOULD MEAN THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO
MAINLY IN THE NORTH SHIFTING SOUTH BY SAT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL BE MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS DEVELOPED WITH 
DEPICTION OF THE WEAKENING OF 500MB CONUS RIDGE/TROUGH. AS NW FLOW 
DEAMPLIFIES A BIT FROM WEST TO EAST AND ALLOWS THICKNESSES TO 
INCREASE SUN PM INTO MONDAY. SHOULD THAT COME TO FRUITION THE 850MB 
TEMPS WOULD INCREASE TO 0C NORTHEAST TO DAYTIME 4C SOUTHWEST 
ALLOWING FOR NEAR NORMAL ...ALBEIT STILL ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH MAX 
TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND MAYBE SOME LOW 20S MONDAY/TUESDAY. THEN 
ARCTIC AIRMASS PLUNGES SOUTH AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS 
POSSIBLE WITH WAA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.  

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MOST PLACES EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS
SEEING LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING. KGFK WENT DOWN TO MVFR WITH -SN BUT
THINK THIS WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR BY
MORNING...WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE
APPROACHING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT ONLY INCLUDED A
MENTION AT KDVL FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...JR