708 FXUS66 KOTX 050600 AFDOTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA 1000 PM PST Wed Dec 4 2013 .SYNOPSIS... Cold conditions will dominate the weather over the Inland Northwest through at least early next week. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal. The pattern will remain generally dry through Tuesday but a few snow showers will be possible at times mainly in the mountains. A low pressure system will usher in a better chance for snow next Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Evening update: We are experiencing increasing clouds across a majority of northeastern WA, Nrn ID, the East Slopes (south of Lake Chelan), and portions of the Columbia Basin. Cloud decks are generally between 4-7K AGL but time-height/bufkit data for sites across NE WA and Nrn ID suggest ceilings will continue to lower near 3K AGL overnight. The forcing is extremely weak...however since it is so cold outside, the moisture will be centered within the -10 to -20C layer and would not be surprised if occasional flurries were to form within the moisture. The clouds will also keep temperatures warmer than originally anticipated and forecast has been adjusted upward in these locations. We have also issued a wind chill watch from Northern ID to the southwest Basin. The original forecast was flirting with critical thresholds and 00z guidance has trend a bit windier and colder for Friday night/Saturday which has led to potential wind chill values ranging from 15 below to 25 below. Whether its 15 below or colder...it will create dangerous conditions to humans exposed to these elements without proper gear. /sb && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS...Very weak ascent in the lower levels of the atmosphere will lead to increasing cigs btwn 3-6K AGL this morning...potentially becoming as low at 2K AGL following the worse case models. This moistening was recently introduced with the 00z guidance and has strong support from satellite trends and TAFS generally followed suite. Occasional flurries will be possible at locations btwn Spokane and CDA and points northward which could lead to a light dusting of snow. Confidence is generally low regarding pcpn potential and most tafs carry a dry fcst. Cigs are expected to improve Thursday afternoon but timing is highly uncertain at this time with very weak winds within the layer. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 5 17 9 13 -1 12 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 5 17 3 14 -1 12 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 Pullman -7 17 7 16 -1 12 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 Lewiston 8 20 12 22 5 17 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 Colville 9 20 1 18 -4 15 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 6 16 0 14 -3 12 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 Kellogg -1 14 0 10 -3 11 / 10 10 10 10 10 0 Moses Lake 5 22 10 23 2 18 / 0 10 10 10 0 0 Wenatchee 12 22 11 23 4 19 / 0 10 20 10 10 0 Omak 2 18 6 18 -2 16 / 0 10 10 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Wind Chill Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle. WA...Wind Chill Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse. && $$