000 FXUS64 KBMX 020551 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1151 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013 .UPDATE... FOR 06Z AVIATION. && .DISCUSSION... SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES CENTRAL ALABAMA FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW RAIN TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA...AND TO WHAT EXTENT IT OVERCOMES DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST LIFT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS FOR OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW TO REFLECT THE CHANGE IN TIMING. BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE...AND SHOULD REMAIN STEADY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ACROSS THE EAST...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 4OS. UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. 14 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. THE SAME GENERAL SCENARIO REMAINS AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND PROVIDES PLENTY OF UPWARD MOTION. THE INGREDIENT THAT IS LACKING IS THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT. THE MAIN CHANGE THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE TO MENTION SOME POSSIBLE LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS INTO IFR FRO BHM/ANB AROUND DAYBREAK. THESE ARE THE AREAS WERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND ARE. OTHERWISE...HAVE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS DECREASING TO MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS ARE LESS AFFECTED BY THE UPWARD MOTION AND OVERALL VIRGA/RAIN. THEREFORE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER BUT ONLY 030-035 AND THEN HOLD THE REST OF THE FORECAST. WE WILL MONITOR HOW THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIELD SETS UP IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE HEAVIER RAIN...IF ANY...SHOULD LOWER CEILINGS THERE. SMALL PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN MAY EXIST AFTER 20Z MAINLY NORTH...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. 75 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013/ PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT IS GOING TO TRY TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE AIR IS STILL PRETTY DRY SO THINK RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT A DECENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA IS POSSIBLE. NOT MUCH WITH THIS AROUND MGM OR TOI. THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT MONDAY BUT THEN WE ARE LEFT IN A WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFTING PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ALLOWED TO WARM UP WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY IS ALSO A TRANSITION DAY INTO A MUCH WETTER PATTERN THAT COULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING IN THE GULF AND SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUT US UNDER PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL IMPULSES IN THE PATTERN WILL BRING NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DEEP SOUTH. A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS COULD SPIN UP AND BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE FRONT. THE BEST LOCATION FOR THIS IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-59. LOOK FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ICY CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH WHERE THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP AS SOME OF OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE CLOSE TO POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS POINT...I THINK IT REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA BUT ITS CLOSE. WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SOME RAIN TO BE AROUND THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. 88 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 46 57 48 63 53 / 60 50 20 30 20 ANNISTON 46 58 49 66 56 / 50 40 20 30 20 BIRMINGHAM 49 60 52 67 58 / 60 50 20 30 20 TUSCALOOSA 50 63 53 69 58 / 50 50 20 30 20 CALERA 48 61 51 67 57 / 40 50 20 30 20 AUBURN 44 62 51 66 56 / 20 10 20 30 10 MONTGOMERY 46 67 51 73 57 / 20 10 20 30 10 TROY 44 68 51 73 57 / 10 10 20 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$