194 FXUS63 KBIS 260914 AFDBIS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 314 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2013 THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING SKY COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALONG THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED TO AROUND 10 TO 15 IN THE NORTH AND GENERALLY FROM 15 TO 20 IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. LATE MONDAY EVENING THE CLOUD COVER WAS MUCH GREATER WITH ONLY POCKETS OF CLEARING...WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY FROM 1500 TO 2500 FEET HIGH. MODELS WERE FORECASTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS TO REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE ARCTIC HIGH THAT WAS FORECAST TO MOVE TO ITS PRESENT LOCATION ALONG THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. HOWEVER...THE PAST 1-2 HOURS HAVE SEEN CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS IN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING WERE DISSIPATING QUICKLY OR MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE STATE. TODAY THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...AND BE CENTERED IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE...REACHING INTO THE 20S SOUTHWEST. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. TONIGHT THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REACH IOWA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND WARM ADVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH WESTERLY H850 WINDS RIDING UP AND OVER THE EXITING ARCTIC AIRMASS. THIS WILL CREATE LIFTING AND WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AND JAMES RIVER BASINS FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...RANGING TO THE TEENS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2013 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA 12Z WED MORNING...AND WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-WED NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CAA WED AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS STILL APPEARS TO BE A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE BISMARCK COUNTY WARNING AREA OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF MID LEVEL ENERGY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS ARE BRINGING LOW STRATUS INTO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WED AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC RIDGE...AND MAINTAINING SCT-BKN LOW CIGS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THESE TIME PERIODS. TYPICAL TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION FOR LATE FALL/EARLY WINTER FOR THE WORK-WEEK WITH COLDER HIGHS/LOWS NORTHEAST AND WARMER OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. WILL SEE A PATTERN CHANGE STARTING ON FRIDAY AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...TRANSITIONING OUR FLOW ALOFT FROM NORTHWEST TO MORE ZONAL INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS CHANGE IS OCCURRING...STRONG ENERGY OVER ALASKA ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN PACIFIC SHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MORPH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL DIFFER GREATLY ON ITS EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND TO WHAT AFFECT LEAD IMPULSES IF ANY WILL HAVE ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2013 SKIES CLEARED QUICKLY AFT 06Z DESPITE EARLIER FORECAST BASED ON HIGHER MOISTURE FIELD PROGNOSIS. THUS SENT TAF AMENDMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR VFR CONDITIONS. TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT AROUND 2000-3000 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY/DURING TUESDAY EVENING. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...JV