790 
FXUS63 KFGF 120915
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
315 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THU.
MODELS CONTINUE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...AND NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL WARM UP QUITE A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS VERY COLD
READINGS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS WELL WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING AS TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOW/MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WON/T FALL OFF TOO MUCH WITH WINDS
REMAINING IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CONTINUED WAA.

FOR WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY SFC
FLOW BY AFTERNOON AND VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. IF MIXING CAN OCCUR
WITH +12C TEMPS NEAR 850MB EARLY WED...THEN SOME AREAS COULD REACH
NEAR 50. MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH
BY AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOME...BUT IT SHOULD
STILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH AND DEEP LAYERED
SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR WITH DECENT MID LEVEL OMEGA. EXPECT A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO MOVE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THOUGH WITH
SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MOST OF THE LIGHT QPF FALLING DURING
THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WED FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
COOLEST READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL AGAIN 
ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS WARM NICELY INTO
THE 30S AND 40S.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THE 
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIG INTO THE PAC 
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A LONGWAVE TROUGH 
OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT 
PROGRESSIVE AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR 
MASS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE WEEKEND 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES...WITH THE ECMWF STILL A 
BIT SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED WITH THE GFS. WITH THIS 
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME POPS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...ALTHOUGH CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW 
DEVELOPMENT WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013

MVFR CIGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE FAR EAST LEAVING THE FA
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
WILL BE SOME THIN CI. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER