739 FXUS64 KHUN 090914 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 .DISCUSSION... THE 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS INDICATED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES TO BE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. EXPECT BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY CLOSE TO A CATEGORY DUE TO THE INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROGRESSIVELY MOVE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS STATES BY 00Z MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH TIME THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND ON THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DO INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL FORCING...BUT MOISTURE SHOULD BE LACKING ALSO WITH THIS COLD FRONT. WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP EXPECTED TO END BY THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE FURTHER ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED COLDER TEMP TRENDS BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR WEDNESDAY...HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE COOLER ECWMF AND WARMER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE. THE LARGE 1037 MILLIBAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE ITS RELATEIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ADVECT NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY 00Z SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE STUBBORN TO MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. TT && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1026 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013/ FOR 06Z TAFS...CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF OVER TX. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 62 41 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 SHOALS 62 41 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 VINEMONT 61 41 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 FAYETTEVILLE 59 40 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 ALBERTVILLE 61 40 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 FORT PAYNE 61 39 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.