739 FXUS64 KHUN 081630 AAB AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1030 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 .UPDATE... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DWPT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST. && .DISCUSSION... LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER IS INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS N AL/SRN TN THIS MORNING. AFTER A CHILLY START WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S...A RELATIVELY NICE WARM-UP HAS OCCURRED WITH 10AM/16Z TEMPS IN THE LWR 50S. ASIDE FROM A STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EXIST. INITIAL MIXING HAS DRIVEN DOWN OCNL GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 12-17KTS THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW OF THESE GUSTS INTO THE EARLY AFTN...BUT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT GUSTS/WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. ASIDE FROM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPTS (LITTLE DRIER ACROSS NE AL)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WILL HAPPEN AT THIS TIME. DJN.83 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013/ FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013/ THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD TO OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE ONLY EFFECTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GENERALLY A ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY...THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO INDICATE A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY...INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND THEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HAVE MADE SEVERAL CHANGES INVOLVING THE FORECAST TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOW MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER INVOLVING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND HAVE DECIDED TO GO ALONG MORE WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE MORE DRIER GFS MODEL SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE ONLY ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN. HAVE DROPPED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AFTER TUESDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRYING AND NVA ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING FOR ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT BE GOOD...AS THE RAPID DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT ANY CHANCES FOR LEFT OVER MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE WITH TEMPS NEARING THE FREEZING MARK BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE A STRONG AND COLDER 1040 MILLIBAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS BY LOWERING THEM A FEW CATEGORIES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS MODEL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST INVOLVING TEMPS. TT && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.