064 FXUS63 KIND 041413 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 913 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 335 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TUESDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AROUND WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THURSDAY ON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. MODELS MOVE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 907 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013 NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES. WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SKIES ARE OVERCAST BUT DIM SUNSHINE PRESENT SO PARTLY CLOUDY STILL LOOKS OK. THUS ONLY MINOR TWEEKS PLANNED FOR TODAY FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 335 AM...SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION DUE TO WARM ADVECTION. WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS AS HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT SOME TODAY. GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. OVERALL MOS NUMBERS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES AND WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 335 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013 FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE ON RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LOTS OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MODELS INDICATE ONE HALF INCH TO INCH RAIN AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS GOOD UVV...BUT VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY. SREF INDICATES HARDLY ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM AND SPC DAY 3 DOES NOT INDICATE ANY THUNDER...SO WILL PULL MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT. GIVEN THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THEN. OTHERWISE...WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 237 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013 MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE LONG TERM SO THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING SO ONLY WENT LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...BUT MOST OF THE FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL...SO THE DRY FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF COLD BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR 041200Z KIND TAF/... ISSUED AT 907 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013 VFR. WINDS TAD STRONGER AND MORE VEERED TO SOUTH THAN INITIAL FORECAST. HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH AND MID CLOUD FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY TO MATCH OBSERVED OUT WEST OF HERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 531 AM...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM HIGH TO MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 16Z OR SO WITH GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE. THESE WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...TUCEK SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...TUCEK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS