396 FXUS61 KBTV 300157 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 957 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...BUT WILL STILL SPREAD SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES...AND PRECIPITATION IS NOT FORECAST OVER OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY OR INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 957 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SOME VERY LIGHT SSE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY GIVEN SFC ANTICYCLONE POSITION TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...THE NARROWER AND MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LONG NIGHTS AS WE APPROACH OCTOBER WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WINOOSKI...LOWER PASSUMPSIC...AND CT RIVER VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH A FEW MID-UPR 30S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 152 PM EDT SUNDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES BECOMES STRONGLY FRONTOLYTIC AS IT ENCOUNTERS PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT RIBBON OF HIGHER DEEP-LAYER RH AND NARROW PW AXIS AROUND 1" SUGGESTS A REMNANT BAND OF MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THESE CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT RADIATIONAL FOG MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT GIVEN WEAK P-GRADIENT AND TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY 1-2F ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS (LOWS IN THE 40S AND VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING IN THE 70S). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY...MILD WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY MORNING A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY. CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS IS MAINLY WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT STRETCHED OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW. GFS AND ECMWF STILL HANDLE THIS SYSTEM QUITE DIFFERENTLY WITH ECMWF BEING FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH AS LOW LIFTS NORTH...WITH ALL PRECIP ENDING BY SUNDAY MORNING. GFS IS SLOWER WITH A BREAK IN PRECIP ON SATURDAY...BUT THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE A LOT OF CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE END OF MY FORECAST DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 2 MAIN MODELS AVAILABLE IN THAT TIME FRAME. VERY POOR MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND KMPV BETWEEN 05Z AND 13Z WHEN LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR VIS IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-14Z EACH DAY ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. APPROACHING SYSTEM FRIDAY COULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...EVENSON/BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES