410 FXUS64 KJAN 260920 AFDJAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 420 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2013 .DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGHS GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER 60S AND RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT. /19/ SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY-MONDAY...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ERRATIC IN THEIR HANDLING OF THESE FEATURES AS THE RIDGE IN PLACE WILL TEND TO DEFLECT THEM. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE TROUGH FARTHER EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER. HAVE RAISED MAV MOS GUIDANCE POPS SOME OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECWMF SOLUTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN JUST HOW MUCH THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT... MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE AS WE GO INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF OCTOBER. /EC/ && .AVIATION...AFTER A BOUT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS AT SOME SITES THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY AND GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT TO CALM LATE THIS EVENING. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 87 65 89 62 / 0 0 0 5 MERIDIAN 87 61 89 56 / 0 0 0 6 VICKSBURG 88 61 90 63 / 0 0 0 4 HATTIESBURG 91 66 91 61 / 0 0 0 2 NATCHEZ 87 64 89 66 / 0 0 0 2 GREENVILLE 87 65 88 64 / 0 0 0 4 GREENWOOD 87 65 88 62 / 0 0 0 5 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ /19/EC/