408 FXUS64 KHUN 191954 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 254 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENSION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. T.S. MANUEL IS ENTERING MEXICO AND IT'S MOISTURE IS ALREADY STREAMING ALOFT INTO TX/OK ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. HIGH PWS WILL LIKELY FEED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS IL/MO/OK/TX. AN UPPER TROF WAS CUTTING EWD ACROSS ERN MT/WY/CO. LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST DEVELOPMENTS FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY INVOLVING RAIN/QPF LATE FRI INTO SAT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, A HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE ENVELOPED THE DEEP SOUTH AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROF. THE REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL MAY DRIFT INTO SRN TX, BUT THE SPEED OF THE TROF SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO PREVENT DIRECT INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. I AM STILL FAVORING THE NAM SOLUTION AS THE LATEST GFS SOLN IS DEVELOPING A COMPACT MCS/LOW FRIDAY NIGHT (LOOKS VERY SPURIOUS), EXITING EARLY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IN FAVOR OF A SLOW MOVING AND NEARLY CUTOFF UPPER LOW SITUATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (LACK OF CONSISTENCY). THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM APPEARS MORE REASONABLE WITH A PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAKER TROF AXIS DROPPING SE THRU THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE STRONG COMPACT MCS LOOKS TOO OVERBLOWN AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW LEVEL DIVERGENT STREAMFLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FRI/FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN GULF. WILL STAY THE TREND WE HAVE BEEN GOING WITH CHC POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT, AND LIKELY POPS SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY EARLY), WITH A QUICK EXIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A DIRECT CONCERN FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD STRETCH OF WEATHER SHOULD TAKE SHAPE DAYS 3-7. WE HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS AND TEMPS A BIT THIS PACKAGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS BEGINNING SUNDAY, WITH THE COOLEST MORNING LIKELY ON MONDAY. THE GFS DOES SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING, SO WE MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS EVEN FURTHER IN OUR TN COUNTIES AND SOME N AL VALLEYS. AK && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013/ FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BTWN 5-10KTS THAT WILL SLACKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SHIFTING WINDS TO BE MORE OUT OF THE SW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING MID/HIGH LVL (VFR) CLOUD COVER. CCC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 64 87 68 81 / 0 0 40 70 SHOALS 66 89 67 80 / 0 10 50 70 VINEMONT 64 87 68 78 / 0 0 40 70 FAYETTEVILLE 65 85 66 79 / 0 0 50 70 ALBERTVILLE 63 86 69 76 / 0 0 30 70 FORT PAYNE 63 86 70 77 / 0 0 30 70 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.