014 
FXUS63 KIND 141816
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
216 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A 
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 
SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT THURSDAY 
OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

COOL MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER A CHILLY START TEMPS ALREADY RECOVERING...RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS OF 13Z.

FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR
THE UPDATE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH PLEASANT WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TODAY WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR PRESENT.
NO CHANGES TO HIGHS AS MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FROM EAST TO WEST LOOK ATTAINABLE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS QUIET TONIGHT. MODEL DATA 
SUGGEST A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME UPPER SUPPORT IN 
THE FORM OF AN UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MODELS 
GENERATE SOME DECENT LIFT MAINLY IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE SUNDAY 
NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. WILL GO 
WITH CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHWEST 
ZONES...AND ALL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. 

APPEARS SOME FORCING MAY STILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FAR SOUTH BY 
SUNRISE MONDAY...SO WILL ADD SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS 
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE 
SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE 
LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART...SO NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS 
PLANNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED FOR MOST ITEMS. 
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STILL ARE MAKING PINNING 
DOWN ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD FOR HIGHER POPS DIFFICULT. THUS GENERALLY 
STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. 

WARM FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCES 
CONTINUING THURSDAY IN A WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT 
WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD 
RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 
80S UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES NEXT WEEK...RETURNING TEMPERATURES 
TO THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS.

HIGH CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE 
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE 
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN SOUTHWEST UP TO 10KT SUNDAY.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR FOG AT KBMG/KHUF 
OVERNIGHT...BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50

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