317 
FXUS63 KBIS 131847
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
147 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE FOR MIDDAY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BASED ON
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH COULD SEE SOME INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN...AND LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SHIFTS NORTH.

NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE TODAY FOR A LOT OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY GOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
AFTERNOON.

BY LATE DAY...HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ADVECTING NORTH REACHES THE
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA AND AIDES IN DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS AS THE MID LEVEL COOL POOL AND ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND THEN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
EVENING...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE
LACKING SO WILL EXPECT GARDEN VARIETY STORMS...SUB SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

BLOCKING FLOW ACROSS THE WEST THAT HAS BROUGHT THE PLEASANT
WEATHER IS FOR3CAST TO BREAK DOWN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE TROUGH PORTION OF THE REX
BLOCK TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S ON
SUNDAY...AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. STILL THINKING THE FROST WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATER IN SEPTEMBER. A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 40S TO 50S. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME...SEE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WED THROUGH FRI. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING 
RAIN INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AFFECTING KDIK...KBIS...AND KJMS.  
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE IS 
A POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN ND...ALTHOUGH 
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LACK OF CONSENSUS AMONG NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AC