769 FXUS64 KLZK 111125 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 625 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2013 .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AND WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE COVERAGE WILL BE TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2013/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY LATE SEASON HEAT CONTINUES AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS UNDER SOME CONTROL...AS WELL AS WITH DRYING SOILS. HOWEVER...INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN WANING AS HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE BEGINNING TO FALL OVER TIME ACROSS THE STATE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS...ALTHOUGH SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL...WILL NOT BE AS HOT AS OF LATE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS WED ARE ALSO UP SLIGHTLY...AS AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...STILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME AS THERE ARE NO DEFINITIVE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS IN PLACE OTHER THAN SOME RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE ISOLATED CONVECTION TUE. THU WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO THIS WED AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH CONTINUED LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...WITH TEMPS MAYBE A DEG OR TWO COOLER. HOWEVER...DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS AR BY LATE THU. BEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES THU AFTERNOON IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF FRI...WITH BEST POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA LIMITED THROUGH FRI NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE BY SAT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE FORTHCOMING THIS MORNING AS EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES DO SHOW UP IN THE FINER DETAILS...THEY WILL BE AVERAGED OUT WITH A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS. COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA WHEN THE PERIOD INITIATES WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURE REBOUNDING ACCORDINGLY. MODELS ATTEMPT TO MOVE A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT WILL BE SLOWED DOWN OR MORE THAN LIKELY STALLED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THERE DOES REMAIN JUST ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION SIGNALS THAT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE JUSTIFIED DAYS SIX AND SEVEN ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH READINGS RETURNING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 96 71 94 66 / 20 10 20 20 CAMDEN AR 97 71 97 72 / 20 10 10 20 HARRISON AR 93 68 91 63 / 20 10 20 20 HOT SPRINGS AR 95 71 94 71 / 20 10 10 20 LITTLE ROCK AR 96 72 95 72 / 20 10 10 20 MONTICELLO AR 96 71 97 73 / 20 10 10 20 MOUNT IDA AR 95 70 95 69 / 20 10 10 20 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 95 68 93 64 / 20 10 20 20 NEWPORT AR 95 70 94 67 / 20 10 20 20 PINE BLUFF AR 94 71 96 71 / 20 10 10 20 RUSSELLVILLE AR 97 71 96 70 / 20 10 20 20 SEARCY AR 95 70 94 70 / 20 10 20 20 STUTTGART AR 94 71 96 70 / 20 10 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...56