145 FXUS63 KMPX 090412 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1112 PM CDT SUN SEP 8 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 8 2013 THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV MOVED SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO WC WISCONSIN FOR THE EVENING. FOCUS TURNS TO RETURN OF THE WARM FRONT. SURGE OF WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEAST OVER ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VERY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VARIOUS HIRES MODELS INDICATE THIS AS WELL. ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS...MOVING ALONG THE MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN. HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE A THREAT WITH THE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. TIMING WOULD BRING IT INTO WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH 06Z AND INTO EAST CENTRAL MN/WESTERN WI THROUGH 12Z MON. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD TAKE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. STRONG WARM SURGE WITH FRONT WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 102 AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR 100. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ADD TO THE HEAT POTENTIAL AS WELL. COLD FRONT WORKS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL CHANCE POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE WITH THE LARGE MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 8 2013 POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE CAP ERODES SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE STRONGER FORCING LIES WELL TO THE NORTH...CHANCE POPS ARE STILL SUFFICIENT TO CAPTURE THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE/PROBABILITY. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD POSE A WIND THREAT GIVEN THE DRIER LLVL AIR. ALONG THOSE LINES..PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK MEAGER...GENERALLY AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AND THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REDUCE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH FURTHER REDUCTIONS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SAID AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF BY SATURDAY...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATING A SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN MN AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. HAVE CONTINUED TO FEATURE 30-40 POPS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 8 2013 COMPLICATED NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A STRONG SURGE OF HOT/MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT...BRINGING SOME CONVECTION ALONG WITH BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS AND A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT. MVFR CEILING PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HITTING IFR LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAINING AS SUCH POST-SUNRISE. THERE MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH DEWPOINT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING TO ALLOW FOR IFR-OR-WORSE VSBY FOG ARND DAYBREAK. THE DEGRADED CONDS WILL LAST THRU LATE MORNING...THEN AS THE CDFNT MAKES ITS WAY ACRS MN INTO WI...THE WIND SHIFT PLUS DRIER AIR WILL CLEAR OUT THE SKIES AND MAKE FOR JUST SCT COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY. AS FOR PRECIP...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER NRN TAF SITES...MAINLY KAXN-KSTC-KMSP. HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TS MAKING IT INTO THE SITES WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN SIMPLY PRECIP...SPECIFICALLY -RA...WILL OCCUR SO WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS FOR -RA WITHOUT MENTION OF TS/CB ATTM. SECONDLY...REGARDING WINDS...THE VEERING OF WINDS FROM SE TO SW AND NW LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...MAKING FOR BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH THE SHIFT. THE TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE BY AN HOUR OR SO EITHER WAY ALONG WITH HOW POTENT THE WIND SHIFT MAY BE...SO THE TREND IS THE MAIN THING AT THIS POINT AND THE FORECAST WILL BE REFINED CLOSER TO THE EVENT. KMSP...HAVE STARTED OUT WITH MVFR CONDS BEFORE DROPPING TO SUB-1700 FT CEILINGS THRU DAYBREAK. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY AFFECT THE FIELD DURING THE MORNING PUSH. CEILINGS ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL TO DROP BELOW 1000 FT DURG THE MORNING PUSH. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...CONDS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AND HAVE HELD ON TO MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY AFTN. VFR CONDS ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY THRU THE AFTN WHILE SKIES IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. CHC -RA EARLY. W WINDS 5-10 KT. WED...VFR. NW WINDS 10 KT. THU...VFR. N WINDS 10 KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 8 2013 NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S...WHILE DEW POINTS LOWER INTO THE MID 50S. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEARING 25 PERCENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. WHILE VEGETATION IS STILL RATHER GREEN...THE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OVER THE LAST MONTH AND THE MOUNTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL WARRANT A HEIGHTENED AWARENESS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ049>053- 057>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091>093. WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ014>016- 023>028. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JPC FIRE WEATHER...LS