405 
FXUS63 KOAX 072003
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 PM CDT SAT SEP 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH
MONDAY...POCKETS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND UPPER
RIDGE PIVOT POINT COULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ISSUES INTO SUNDAY.

BULK OF MOSTLY WELL ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
AS OF 1930Z BUT OUTFLOW WAS AIDING IN PUSHING BOUNDARY INTO FAR
SRN ZONES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
REGENERATE SFC BASED CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH 4KM WRF DID SO JUST AS IT WAS PASSING SOUTH OF
REGION. SO LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC TSTM POPS FAR SERN ZONES THIS
EVENING. QUESTION THEN SHIFTS TO WHETHER OR NOT REDEVELOPMENT OR
ADVECTION OF OTHER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GFS/NAM KEPT AN AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG MO RIVER VALLEY
INTO SUNDAY WITH N/NWRLY H5 WINDS...PRETTY SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...NO APPARENT WAVE WAS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF
AREA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AFTER TOYING BACK AND FORTH WITH
IDEA...DECIDED TO INCLUDE/EXTEND SLIGHT CHC POPS FARTHER NW IN MID
LEVEL MOIST AXIS THRU MUCH OF THE FA AFT 06Z.

DID NOT...HOWEVER...FEEL STRONGLY ENOUGH OF ANY ACTIVITY LINGERING
WELL INTO SUNDAY TO IMPACT TEMPS MUCH AND LEFT TEMPERATURES PRETTY
MUCH ALONE WHICH FIT INTO A MAV/MET COMPROMISE. SFC WINDS APPEAR
TO KEEP ENOUGH OF A SE COMPONENT MOST AREAS MUCH OF THE DAY...THUS
DID NOT MIX OUT DWPTS TOO MUCH...BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINED
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

APPROACHING TROUGH ON MONDAY SHOULD PROVIDE MORE OF SWRLY
DIRECTION TO SFC WINDS WHICH COULD PROMOTE SOME DRYING AND SHOULD
ALSO BRING WARMER READINGS TO NRN ZONES WITH H85 THERMAL AXIS
NOSING INTO NERN NEBR. 

ALTHOUGH THIS THROUGH SHOULD SEND NEXT FRONT TOWARD NERN NEBR BY
MONDAY EVENING...INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE FA WITH UPPER RIDGE STUBBORNLY HANGING
ON ACROSS SERN U.S. THUS EXTENDED POPS INTO THU SOUTH. CONFIDENCE
IN HOW SUCCESSFUL GENERATION WILL BE ALONG OR BEHIND FRONT NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE MANY/ANY SIGNIFICANT POP CHANGES IN MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT PERIODS. HOWEVER...MID CHC POPS SEEMED OK
ESPECIALLY AFTER SEEING HOW SUCCESSFUL CONVECTION WAS IN HOLDING
TOGETHER/WEAKLY REGENERATING EARLIER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY WARM...ALTHOUGH A BIT COOLER...AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR LACK OF IT COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPERATURES. BUT FOR NOW FORECAST HIGHS IN MID 90S AHEAD OF FRONT
FAR SRN ZONES TUE AND UPPER 80S ON WED WITH LOW/MID 80S OVR NRN
ZONES BOTH DAYS.

NERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THU/FRI PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNS BY SATURDAY.

CHERMOK 

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK

WITH EARLIER CONVECTION WEAKENING VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEE
&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$