322 FXUS63 KGLD 310500 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1100 PM MDT FRI AUG 30 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI AUG 30 2013 UPDATE REQUIRED TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO FORECAST GIVEN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT FRI AUG 30 2013 THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH THE LARGER TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST CANADA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY OUT OF KANSAS...BUT CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS IN FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT REALLY DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING. SO WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND FRONT PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH CONVERGENT AREAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING COVERAGE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT FRI AUG 30 2013 A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING PRODUCING GOOD DYNAMICS. CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BASES AROUND 10KFT. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FA DURING THE EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY 06Z SUNDAY. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SATURDAY EVENING WITH DECREASING COVERAGE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. PLAN TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES SUNDAY MORNING IN CASE THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN THAT AREA. SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS WILL BE NIL. MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 60S IN THE EAST FA. SUNDAY NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA WITH A FEW TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 IN THE EAST FA. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES IN MID 80S SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S. IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED A TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NIL POPS AS SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES UNDER THE RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI AUG 30 2013 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. LGT/VAR WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KTS BY 15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY EARLY EVENING LGT/VAR WINDS RETURN TIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WHEN THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 5-10MPH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN. MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW HOURS AT TAF ISSUANCE THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WONT BE INCLUDING ANY THUNDER GROUPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT MAY INCLUDE SOME FOR THE IMMEDIATE TIME FRAME BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...LOCKHART LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...99