479 FXUS64 KHGX 260436 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 .DISCUSSION... 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION. && .AVIATION... OVERALL NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING IN THE 00Z TAFS. PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THOSE DETAILS. IN SUMMARY...CONVECTION STILL OFF THE UPPER TX COAST AND SABINE PASS. THIS COULD INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING PER NAM/GFS FORECASTS. TAFS COVER THIS POSSIBILITY WELL. TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM CONVECTION AND MVFR CIGS. DO EXPECT CIGS/CONVECTION TO IMPROVE 23Z-01Z IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING LOOKS QUIET AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED. 39 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013/ UPDATE... POPS...WEATHER...AND WIND FORECAST GRID DATA. DISCUSSION... THE EASTERLY WAVE TROUGH WAS FILLING IN OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IN TURN HAS HELPED KEEP THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AXIS JUST OFFSHORE. PREFER THE NAM12 AND GFS WHICH DO NOT MOVE THE WAVE ONSHORE UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM. BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH...MOST RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. THE NAM12 AND RAP13 WERE SLOWER AND MORE TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH 7 AM THAN THE GFS. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE THE POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. 40 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013/ DISCUSSION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION. AVIATION... KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...A FEW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND WITH TROP WAVE OFF THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXPECT MAINLY A QUIET OVERNIGHT. WILL BRING BACK MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON AS WAVE AXIS PUSHES INTO SE TX. THINK MOST OF THESE TERMINALS WILL BE ON EDGE OF PRECIP BASICALLY ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN. KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH TROP WAVE STILL OFF THE COAST. THINK ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND PRECIP STARTING IN THE MORNING 10-11Z AND GO TO PREVAIL SHRA LATE MORNING. COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO TSRA SO DECIDED TO GO VCTS FOR NOW WITH SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH RESULTING CONVECTION. CONVECTION SHOULD DROP OFF BY 22Z TOMORROW WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS LIKE TODAY. KLBX/KGLS...SHRA SHOULD BE ONGOING NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD DECREASE AS CONVECTION NEAR TROP WAVE AXIS HAS DROPPED OFF PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WILL BRING BACK VCSH AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THINK BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM 10-15Z WITH POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. WILL HAVE LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER THAT FOR THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD OVER THE COASTAL AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND GRADUALLY LIFT BY THE EVENING. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 94 74 96 75 / 20 30 10 20 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 75 90 75 95 75 / 20 40 20 30 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 79 88 80 91 81 / 50 60 30 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...40 AVIATION/MARINE...39