172 
FXUS65 KPUB 212148
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
348 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2013

...FLASH FLOODING/LANDSPOUT THREAT INCREASING...ESPECIALLY FOR 
TOMORROW...

CURRENTLY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE ABUNDANT THEN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH 
HUNDREDS OF CG STRIKES OCCURRING DURING THE LAST HOUR OVER THE STATE. 
A SFC BOUNDARY IS SEEN IN THE MOSAIC RADAR DATA EXTENDING ACROSS 
EAST CENTRAL CO AND BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE WESTERN PALMER DIVIDE 
REGION. TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 
TEMPS APPROACHING 100 OUT NEAR KLAA. 

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

UPPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND EXPECT SCTD SHOWERS AND 
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TRRN THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR IS A BIT 
AGGRESSIVE OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE 
TO WATCH THIS AREA FOR FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS. THE HRRR AGRESSIVENESS 
MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO THE BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE. DWPTS HAVE BEEN 
MIXING OUT A BIT BUT 30S AND 40S WERE STILL NOTED ACROSS THE 
MTNS...WITH 40S AND 50S OVER THE PLAINS. WE WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER 
CHANCE OF TSRA OVER THE PLAINS LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA 
REGION. WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE PALMER...MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT 
FOR A LANDSPOUT...ALBEIT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS LOW. 

LATER TONIGHT I ANTICIPATE IT TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES. 

THURSDAY...

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY SHOULD LIE FROM KTAD TO NEAR KLAA. 
NORTH OF THE FRONT...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND WE WILL 
SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE PLAINS. WITH THE BOUNDARY 
OVER FAR SE CO...A BETTER CHANCE OF A LANDSPOUT TORNADO WILL BE 
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE "COOKING" 
ALL DAY TOMORROW AND CAPES SHOULD BE ABOUT 1000 J/KG AND WINDS 
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL BE LIGHT. 

FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE BURN SCARS WILL BE HIGHER TOMORROW AS 
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...CAPES WILL BE 
ABOUT 1500-2000 ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND FLOW WILL BE RATHER 
WEAK. THE LOCAL WRF HAS OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE WALDO LATE 
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONTEMPLATED ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT 
THOUGHT IT BEST TO LET THE MID CREW ISSUE AS THEY WILL HAVE A COUPLE 
MORE GUIDANCE RUNS TO LOOK AT. 

EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE COOLER TOMORROW AS WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS 
AND LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 
90-96F RANGE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH U80S OVER THE PALMER/RATON MESA 
REGION. \/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2013

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES REMAIN POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR LONGER CYCLE AS UPPER RIDGE IS NOW
PROJECTED TO NOT PUSH AS FAR EAST AS EARLIER INDICATED...MEANING
THAT PRIMARY MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD REMAIN OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT AND POINTS WEST DURING THE LONGER TERM. 

THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO 
THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER KANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING INTO 
MISSOUR(INSTEAD OF OVER ILLINOIS AS SOME PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE
INDICATED) BY WEDNESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST...FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD STILL
EXPERIENCE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE VALUES AT TIMES 
...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THE
LONGER TERM.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY DEEPER MOISTURE FROM
THE DEEP TROPICS OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE NEW MEXICO...UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO REGION FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE WESTERN BURN SCARS
SUCH AS THE WEST FORK COMPLEX SHOULD NOTE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL TREND CLOSELY.

FINALLY...CONTINUED ABOVE SEASONAL LATE AUGUST TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY
EASTERN SECTIONS) AS WELL AS GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH THE LONGER TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS AND 
KCOS NEXT 24H. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AN ISOLD 
TSRA MAY AFFECT THE EACH OF THE TAF SITES LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON 
BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING IS TOO LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY 
IN TAF PRODUCT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$