064 FXUS62 KKEY 110240 AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1040 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... EASTERLY WIND SPEEDS AT LOCAL MARINE OBSERVING STATIONS HAVE REMAINED IN A RANGE THAT IS VERY MARGINAL FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THUS FAR. IN JUST THE PAST HOUR... MOST STATIONS ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO THE 19 TO 21 KNOT RANGE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH A BUILDING DRY SLOT APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. KBYX RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY NON-PRECIPITATION ECHOES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. EVENING SOUNDING REFLECTED THE DRY AND STABLE AIR THAT IS PRESENT OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH A DRAMATIC DROP IN OVERALL PWAT VALUE TO 1.44 INCHES...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF EXPECTED VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. .SHORT TERM... WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY PATCH OF ATMOSPHERE SET TO PASS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW... ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM WILL BE FLEETING AND LACKING ANY SORT OF INTENSITY. AFTER NOON TOMORROW... A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF MOISTENING MAY USHER IN A BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT POP VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE ARE JUST A BIT MORE BRISK TONIGHT THAN IS ADVERTISED IN ZONE FORECASTS... OPTED TO JUST UPDATE THE FORECAST GRIDS AND ALLOW CURRENT TEXT PRODUCTS IN PLACE. && .MARINE... WITH WIND SPEEDS ALREADY IN A MARGINAL RANGE FOR SCA ISSUANCE...AND EXPECTING A BIT MORE OF AN OVERNIGHT SURGE TONIGHT...HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE ALL NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS...EXCEPT FOR THE WATERS OF FLORIDA BAY. EXPECT THAT THESE WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WINDS. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND IN KIND TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. && .AVIATION... OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA FL020-025 WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WINDS EAST WINDS FROM 110 DEGREES WILL AVERAGE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE...AVERAGING 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM 500 TO 5000 FEET AGL && .CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...THE DAILY RECORD LOW OF 71 DEGREES LAST OCCURRED ON AUGUST 10TH IN 1938. THIS WAS NOT THE ONLY TIME KEY WEST WITNESSED THIS RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE...71 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED ON AUGUST 10TH...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 1889...AND THE SECOND WAS 1895. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ032>035-042>044- 052>055-072>075. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST