686 FXUS61 KBTV 101945 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 345 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS AGAIN FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OWING TO LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH GUSTS ALSO DROPPING OFF AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED AS SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND MORE SHELTERED HOLLOWS. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY CRISP NIGHT BY EARLY AUGUST STANDARDS AS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO +12C RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S FOR THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO SATURDAY THOUGH NOT QUITE AS GUSTY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +16C...GENERALLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S TO THE MID 50S. THE NEXT PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY ISN'T UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST BENEFITS FROM REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. UPPER FLOW TURNS BROADLY CYCLONIC IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF HUDSON BAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ALSO TRENDING UPWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON TO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD...HIGHEST IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. POSITIVELY- TILTED ORIENTATION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BEING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST RATHER SLOWLY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 1.25"...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BUT NOT EXCESSIVE. IT APPEARS THE BEST QG FORCING/DYNAMICS DON'T ALIGN THEMSELVES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT DOWN BY CLOUD COVER...IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 326 PM EDT SATURDAY...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES...NOT TERRIBLY HIGH...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A QUARTER TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...SO HAVE JUST INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT...AS COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH SOME UPPER 60S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES. TEMPS REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHEN VALLEY HIGHS WILL APPROACH 80. MINS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING. NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME RADIATION FOG FORMING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT AND THE VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. ANY FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY 13Z SUNDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. POSSIBLE IFR IN LOCAL FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...OCNL MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 344 PM EDT SATURDAY...NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM 44... BROADCASTING FROM THE TOP OF MOUNT ASCUTNEY VERMONT...REMAINS OFF THE AIR UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO A DAMAGED ANTENNA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV