470 FXUS63 KIND 061825 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 224 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013 WARMER AIR IS SET TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST PROVIDES A WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY THE FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013 BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING DUE TO SATELLITE TRENDS AS LOW DECK HAS BEEN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SCATTER OUT AND THUS TRENDED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WITH THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY...ONLY BY A DEGREE OR SO IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL BUT BY A FEW DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST SINCE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RAP SHOWS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHER MODELS STILL LOOK DRY. WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE RAP ALSO SHOWING SOME THINGS NOW THAT ARE NOT OCCURRING WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013 MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE OVERALL TREND OF A WET...ACTIVE PATTERN. GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE FIRST SHORT WAVE ARRIVING IN THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AMID THE NW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT A SLOW TOP DOWN STYLE SATURATION BY 12Z. THUS WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY...BUT TREND TOWARD HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE ALSO SHOWS A GOOD SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES RISING TO NEAR 8 G/KG. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS VALUES DUE TO EXPECTED WARM AIR ADVECTION...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRYING OUT...HOWEVER PLENTY OF CAPE...IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG REMAINS AVAILABLE. PWATS ARE ALSO NEAR 1.75 INCHES...VERY MOIST. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE VERY ATTAINABLE...IN THE LOWER 80S...AND THE GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS STRONG LIFT WITH AGAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 9 G/KG. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...FURTHER ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THUS ANY HEATING ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT. WILL TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS. GFS DEPICTS A SHORT WAVE RIDING ACROSS THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA ALSO INDICATE DEEP SATURATION BY THURSDAY...AND NOW WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. FAVORABLE CAPE IS ALSO AVAILABLE. ALOFT IT APPEARS AS IF THE TROPICAL PLUME THAT IS CURRENTLY FLOWING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALLOWING THIS DEEPER MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR STATE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...TRENDING HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND LOWS WARMER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013 EXTENDED MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT DROPPING TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW LOFT. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE GRADUALLY FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SMALL POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...THEREAFTER. HAD TO TINKER ABOUT WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND TO REFLECT THAT. THIS FAMILIAR RECENT PATTERN ALSO STRONGLY SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013 MVFR CEILINGS LOOK LIKE THEY PERSIST ALL DAY PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVELS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT RULE OUT CEILINGS TO 3500 FEET AFTER 20Z IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR IN THE OVERCAST. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL AFTER 00Z. THEN...ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 04Z. WOULD NOT RULE OUT STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...HOWEVER WITH CONVERGENCE WEAK...AND LITTLE GOING ON NOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AND JUST GO WITH VCTS AFTER 20Z WEDNESDAY AT IND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FINALLY...WILL THROW IN MVFR FOG AFTER 09Z AS DEW POINTS INCREASE TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...MK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS