343 FXUS62 KFFC 261951 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 351 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CURRENT RADARS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ELLIJAY THROUGH ATLANTA TO BUENA VISTA. THE TSTMS WERE MOVING NNE AT 5 KTS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE TSTMS MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. EXPECT THE AIRMASS OVER GA TO STABILIZE DURING THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER BUT WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO GA ON SATURDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TN RIVER VALLEY TO NW GA LATE. ONCE AGAIN THE MAV MOS POPS SEEM LOW AND AM FAVORING THE HIGHER MET MOS POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GA FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. 16 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING A SOUTHWARD DRIFT ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT A DIMINISHING TREND FOR POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DURING THAT TIME FRAME WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS FOR CENTRAL. WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COUPLE OF UPPER IMPULSES WITH SHORT BREAKS IN BETWEEN. A DIURNAL PATTERN STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. 41 && .PREVIOUS... LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT SO STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL POPS...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A BIT OF A DECREASE COMPARED TO SATURDAY GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LOSS OF THE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE. JUST AS IN THE SHORT TERM...GUIDANCE POPS SEEM TOO LOW /ESPECIALLY THE MAV POPS/...SO HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. DESPITE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OF GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS ACROSS THAT AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...MODELS ARE DRYING OUT NORTHWEST GEORGIA BUT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AND IT BEING SUMMERTIME...NOT WILLING TO GO DRY WITH THE FORECAST ACROSS THAT AREA. AFTER THIS...NEXT MAIN SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL BE A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED IN THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME. 00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THUS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...HAVE SHOWN THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS REASONABLE. FOR THE MOST PART HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S AND ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. 11 AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... A FEW AREAS HAVE LINGERING MVFR CIGS DUE TO IFR CIGS EARLIER AND A SLOWER WARMUP. ISOLATED TSTMS BEGAN TO DEVELOP AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. HAVE FORECAST VCSH AT MOST TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT ATL WHERE A TSTM WAS ALREADY JUST EAST OF THE AIRFIELD MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. OTHER TAF LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE SOMETHING SIMILAR SO WILL AMD ACCORDINGLY. A LIGHT SE-S FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS. A SW WIND OF 5-10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z ON SATURDAY. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS. 16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 70 85 70 87 / 20 50 30 30 ATLANTA 71 85 70 85 / 10 50 30 30 BLAIRSVILLE 66 80 63 81 / 30 70 30 30 CARTERSVILLE 69 85 66 86 / 10 50 30 20 COLUMBUS 71 88 72 89 / 10 50 30 40 GAINESVILLE 70 83 69 85 / 20 60 30 30 MACON 71 89 70 90 / 10 50 40 40 ROME 68 84 66 85 / 10 50 30 20 PEACHTREE CITY 68 86 69 86 / 5 50 30 30 VIDALIA 71 88 72 90 / 20 40 30 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...16