185 FXUS61 KBGM 242344 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 744 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL BRING VERY PLEASANT WEATHER WITH CHILLY NIGHTS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 730 PM EDT UPDATE...WITH STRATO CU DECK HANGING IN THERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY COUNTIES AND FLATTENING OUT EARLY THIS EVENING...PROLONGED CLEARING SKIES BY JUST A COUPLE OF HRS FOR NOW ACROSS THE AREA FROM BGM NORTH. THIS IS TYPICALLY LAST AREA TO CLR OUT AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLDS REMAIN STUBBORN THROUGH MUCH OF EVENING HRS. ONLY MINOR CHGS TO NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS WERE MADE. 200 PM EDT UPDATE... A VERY PLEASANT AND ABNORMALLY COOL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE IS GUSTY WINDS AND DRIER AIR PREVAILS. 3 HR PRESSURE CHANGES ARE 1 TO 2 MB THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA THUS WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TAKES PLACE. AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS... WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS DRY AIR FUNNELS INTO C NY AND NE PA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE VALLEYS. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE IS SOME LOCATIONS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1 MI. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO EASILY DROP TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 200 PM EDT UPDATE... A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD OVER NY/PA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES RELAXED THURSDAY AFTERNOON RETURN FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR RESULTING IN WAA OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY WARM UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP TO THE LOW 80S BY SAT AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL STILL REMAIN CHILLY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIM AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE AND BECOME UNSETTLED. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS CNY AND NE PA SATURDAY EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAIRLY ACTIVE WX TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER DECENT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY. BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH-END CHC CATEGORY DURING BOTH TIME FRAMES. BY MONDAY...REGION SHOULD RESIDE IN A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING STRATOCU DECK SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS MOST SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE AVP AND ELM ARE CLR TO SCT...REMAINING SITES CLEAR BY ABT 02Z-04Z. NWLY WINDS ARND 08KT BECOME LGT BY MID EVENING. MAIN CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DEVELOPING IFR VSBYS AT ELM AFTER 06Z...WITH CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY FALLING BELOW AIRPORT MINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS AT ELM SHOULD IMPROVE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. .OUTLOOK... THU AFTERNOON/EVENING...VFR FRI/SAT/SUN...CHANCE OF SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. MON...MOSTLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KAH NEAR TERM...JML SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...JML/MDP