029 
FXUS65 KSLC 220412
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1012 PM MDT SUN JUL 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF UTAH THROUGH MONDAY 
WHILE THE FAR SOUTH REMAINS MOIST. MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD 
BEGINNING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR WEST THIS EVE 
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SWRN COLORADO. DEEP 
MOISTURE REMAINS PINNED SOUTH OF THIS AXIS BUT SOME MID LEVEL 
MOISTURE HAS CREPT INTO CENTRAL UTAH. 

CONVECTION WAS ACTIVE AGAIN TODAY MAINLY IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH 
SOME FAIRLY STRONG CELLS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN UT. CELLS 
PROPAGATED ON OUTFLOWS TOWARDS LOWER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT MOSTLY 
WEAKENED AS THEY LEFT THE RIDGE LINES. SUSPECT THIS WAS DUE TO THE
AIR TO THE SOUTH NOT BEING AS WARM AS YESTERDAY SO THEY FOUND A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO GROW.

THE OLD UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AROUND FOR OVER 2 WEEKS SINCE IT 
LEFT THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKED SWWD ACROSS THE COUNTRY 
IS OVER SRN CA AND HEADING OFF THE COAST. IT IS FORECAST TO START 
LIFTING NWWD ALONG THE CA COAST THRU TOMORROW DISPLACING THE HIGH 
EWD AND VEERING THE FLOW OVER SRN UT TO A LITTLE MORE SELY. THIS 
SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO CREEP A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BY 00Z TUE BUT 
IT REALLY DOESNT START TO HEAD NORTH UNTIL DURING THE DAY TUE AS THE 
HIGH CENTERS TO OUR EAST AND THE AXIS ROTATES CLOCKWISE WITH THE 
FLOW BECOMING SSELY OVER THE CWA. 

THE NEW 00Z NAM IS DECIDEDLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE NEW 
GFS...ALTHO THE GFS DOES BRING IT UP...JUST NOT AS MUCH.

TEMPS REMAIN WARM ACROSS THE NORTH THRU TOMORROW ALTHO MODELS DONT 
WARM THE AIRMASS UP FROM TODAY MUCH IF AT ALL SO WE MAY BE A TAD 
WARM ON THE FORECAST FOR SLC. TUE IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR OR A 
TOUCH COOLER AS HIGHER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE NORTH. 

FOR NOW...WILL REMOVE CONVECTION FROM ALL BUT THE FAR SW THIS EVE 
ALTHO SOME LIGHT ANVIL RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AND WILL 
LEAVE LOW POPS FOR THIS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. 

NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE 
TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. 

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)