772 
FXUS64 KTSA 181718
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMALL CHANCES
FOR A TSTM OVR SE OK/W CNTRL AR COULD AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM TAFS.
WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW...AN AMEND MAY BE NEEDED LATER. AFTER
SOME DENSE FOG AT KFYV 2 NIGHTS AGO...THERE WAS NO MORNING FOG
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG IN
THIS SET OF TAFS AS THE GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT THU JUL 18 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH AT LEAST
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KFYV/KBVO EARLY THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SE OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN WITH IMPACTS BRIEF AND VERY LOCALIZED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU JUL 18 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD...WITH OUR AREA REMAINING UNDER UPPER RIDGING CONDITIONS. 
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY 
AND FRIDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON LOW POPS MAINLY FOR 
PARTS OF SE OK/NW AR. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S AREAWIDE...AND 
CURRENT DEWPOINT FORECAST WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY 
CRITERIA.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO KS AND MO OVER THE 
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR...NEAREST THE 
BOUNDARY...FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY AND INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR AREA REMAINING JUST ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF 
THE STRONGER FLOW. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF CONVECTION 
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT WILL NEED KEEP AN EYE ON MCS 
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY GRAZING SOME OF OUR AREA. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL 
SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT WARMUP...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS 
PUSHING THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK GOING INTO 
MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  74  96  75 /  10  10  10  10 
FSM   96  74  97  74 /  20  10  20  10 
MLC   94  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10 
BVO   96  68  96  72 /  10   0  10  10 
FYV   93  68  92  70 /  10  10  20  10 
BYV   91  69  93  71 /  10  10  20  10 
MKO   95  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10 
MIO   97  72  96  74 /  10  10  10  10 
F10   94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10 
HHW   94  73  96  73 /  20  10  20  10 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30