459 
FXUS64 KMRX 180631
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
231 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER 
PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
REMAINING ANCHORED OVER REGION.  THIS TRANSLATED INTO CONTINUED HOT 
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NORMAL AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION 
EXPECTED.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN WEDNESDAY/S ACTIVITY WITH 
BEST CHANCE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  LIMITED CONVECTION MAY LINGER 
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH ONLY A STRAY STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE 
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN DECENT 
OVERALL AGREEMENT FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG 
TERM...ALTHOUGH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN A BIT SUSPECT.  
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.  WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AND WILL BE 
REPLACED BY A SHALLOW EASTERN US TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN DURING 
THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT OVER THE AREA.  LOOKS FAIRLY 
UNSETTLED FOR THE PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS SAT NIGHT AND 
SUNDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA.    
GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK A BIT HIGH AT TIMES FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN EXPECTED 
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. WILL MAKE SOME MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             93  73  91  71  89 /  30  20  30  30  50 
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  91  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  30  50 
OAK RIDGE, TN                       91  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  30  50 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  68  90  67  89 /  20  20  30  30  50 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

MJB/LW