901 FXUS63 KTOP 161122 AAA AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 622 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO PIVOT WESTWARD AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES BETTER SITUATED ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS A RESULT THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE AND ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. WATER VAPOR INDICATES THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ONE OVER WEST CENTRAL AR AND A SECOND IN WESTERN TN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...ANY INHIBITION WILL BE GONE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE PROXIMITY TO SHORTWAVES WARRANTS SOME LOW POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BE ANYMORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SO ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...LIKE YESTERDAY...WOULD BE SPOTTY AND VARIABLE IN NATURE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TARGET SO NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. FOR TONIGHT...CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM...THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE(S) MOVE OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL LIMIT THE LOWS TO THE LOWER 70S WITH MAINLY THE UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013 FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. BECAUSE OF THIS THINK THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTION HAVE A GENERIC 20 PERCENT POP FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH 850 TEMPS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES INCREASING...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAT TUESDAY AND GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOL. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THERE IS NO OBVIOUS FORCING OR LIFT FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON DOES NOT LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT FROM WEDNESDAY'S WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NO INHIBITION. MODELS SEEM TO BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AND MONITOR TRENDS OF LATER MODEL RUNS. THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BETTER FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE SOME 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE POPS. CONSIDERED TAKING POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THINKING THE FRONT WOULD BE WELL SOUTH. IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND OF PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH ON SATURDAY...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF HAVE SPORADIC QPF PROGS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AM NOT THAT EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES. THINK THE ECMWF MAY BE OVERDOING THE EASTWARD EXTEND OF ITS QPF...WHICH LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT A DISTURBANCE COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS. SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY BY MONDAY WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST KS MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S THROUGH FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S AS THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013 WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ADDING TO ANY OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS POINT. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...63 LONG TERM...WOLTERS AVIATION...63