357 FXUS64 KLUB 131118 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 618 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013 .AVIATION... CONTINUED VFR WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. FOR ANY FLIGHT PLANS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BE ADVISED THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CIGS WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL THREATEN A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TEXAS UNDER A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013/ SHORT TERM... SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER KANSAS IS SET TO EDGE SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THIS WEAKENING IS VITAL AS IT WILL ALLOW AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TREK LARGELY UNIMPEDED AS A BURGEONING UPPER HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. THE EFFECTS OF THIS LOW WILL NOT BE FELT LOCALLY UNTIL AFTER THIS SHORT TERM WINDOW...SO ONE FINAL DAY OF VERY HOT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE CARDS...ALTHOUGH IF IT IS ANY COMFORT THE LL THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SET TO DELIVER HIGHS IN EXCESS OF 105 TO PARTS OF NWRN KANSAS AND FAR SWRN NEBRASKA. LONG TERM... MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK WITH BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS A BIT SLOWER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT BUT NOT BY MUCH. SHOULD START TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SURFACE MOISTURE VALUES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BACKS TO THE EAST AND HELP PULL IN HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT REALLY START TO PICK UP UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE TO BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON WEDNESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AS WELL AS LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT ARE MUCH LESS THAN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY HAD... GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO TAPER OFF MID-WEEK. AFTER WEDNESDAY...WE SEEM TO BE STUCK BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW TURNING INTO AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAKENED AND ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT STAYS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ALONG THE EAST COAST. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. JORDAN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 97 68 92 61 71 / 0 0 20 50 50 TULIA 97 69 89 60 73 / 0 0 20 50 50 PLAINVIEW 98 70 90 61 72 / 0 0 20 50 50 LEVELLAND 97 68 94 63 72 / 0 0 20 50 50 LUBBOCK 99 72 94 63 73 / 0 0 20 50 50 DENVER CITY 95 68 94 66 74 / 0 0 10 50 50 BROWNFIELD 97 68 94 65 74 / 0 0 20 50 50 CHILDRESS 105 74 85 65 78 / 0 0 20 70 70 SPUR 99 73 91 65 77 / 0 0 20 60 60 ASPERMONT 103 75 89 66 77 / 0 0 20 80 80 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 93