494 FXUS65 KBOI 111555 AFDBOI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID 955 AM MDT THU JUL 11 2013 .DISCUSSION...ENERGY BEING EJECTED FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR AREA TODAY. AS OF 930 AM MDT...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDED EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR KREO TO NEAR KMYL. WITHIN THIS AREA...SHOWERS WERE CONCENTRATED ALONG A LINE FROM SW TWIN FALLS COUNTY THROUGH KTWF TO JUST EAST OF KJER. OTHER SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OWYHEES...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR AND NAM SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING MID-AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING GENERALLY FROM NEAR KBNO NE TO MOST OF BAKER COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JET STREAK...120 KTS NEAR 200 MB...THAT WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT AND LONGEVITY OF THE CELLS THAT FORM. WE EXPECT TO GET SOME WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND POSSIBLY OVER 60 MPH. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CEILING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF A KREO-KONO-KMYL LINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. AFTER 21Z ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF A KBNO-KMYL LINE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST THROUGH 06Z WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW BROUGHT A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RADAR RETURNS ARE WEAK AND THERE IS A LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. FURTHER WEST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR CWA... STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS WERE SUPPORTED BY AN 80-90 KNOT UPPER JET. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STREAM MOISTURE INTO SW IDAHO OUT OF NEVADA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO LACK OF HEATING AND A CAP AT AROUND 450 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION. SO...WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED VS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER JET WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES INTO BAKER COUNTY. UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST EXCEPT SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS WHICH WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING UP AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE AREA...UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION.....JA PREV SHORT TERM...BW PREV LONG TERM....CB