982 
FXUS63 KTOP 101739
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1239 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD DISSIPATED BY 4 
AM...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF 
THE AREA DRY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME WEAK HEAT BURST 
ACTIVITY AS THE REMNANT SHOWERS DECAY...BUT NOTHING STRONG ENOUGH TO 
CAUSE CONCERN AT THIS POINT. 

THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT HAS BEEN AUGMENTED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW 
BUT SEEMED TO BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AND QUITE DIFFUSE. THIS 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. 
WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 
UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S...AND THE HEAT INDEX MAY FLIRT WITH THE 100 
DEGREE MARK IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL 
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS 
OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT VERY LITTLE ASCENT TO LIFT THROUGH A 
WEAK CAP THAT SHOULD ALSO BE IN PLACE. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR 
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL POTENTIAL OF A STORM OR TWO. IF A 
STORM WERE TO DEVELOP...IT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS OR HAIL. 

THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA 
TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO 
UPPER 60S. DID MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY 
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY VEER 
JUST ENOUGH INTO A TIGHT THETA E GRADIENT TO PROVIDE LIFT INTO AN 
AREA OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS COULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

BARJENBRUCH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THURSDAY UPPER RIDGE 
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING 
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. ANY POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES LIE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL 
SEE STABLE CONDITIONS INFLUENCED BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE MIDWEST. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE KEEPING 
MUCH OF THE QPF CENTERED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE MORE FAVORABLE 
LIFT AND INSTABILITY LIE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. TRACED 
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST MAINLY OVER THE 
NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL AREAS. ANY SHOWER OR 
STORM THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH NO 
SEVERE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. DRY WEATHER ENSUES THEREAFTER AS THE 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERS OVER THE PLAINS. SFC TROUGH STRETCHED OVER 
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALLOWING 
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ON FRIDAY 
AND SATURDAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL KS. BEING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE 
THERMAL AXIS AND AMPLE WARM ADVECTION...H85 TEMPS AT 25C MAY 
POSSIBLY MIX SFC HIGHS TO THE CENTURY MARK OVER NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. 
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...HEAT INDICES OVER 100 
DEGREES ARE LIKELY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BEGINS 
TO BREAK DOWN BEGINNING SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. 
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH WEAKER WARM 
ADVECTION ALLOWING HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE LOWER 
90S. SOUNDINGS MIXING OUT DEWPOINT TEMPS TO UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S BY 
LATE AFTERNOON SUGGEST HEAT INDICES TO NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE COMPARED 
TO RECENT DAYS. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH 00Z THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...53