285 FXUS63 KFGF 061154 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 654 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013 MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS FOR ONGOING RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS...BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON CONVECTION REDEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED TREND OF POPS FILLING IN BY LATE IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013 WV LOOP SHOWS A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH HAS SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS STORMS OVER SD HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS STILL OUT OVER MT...AND WHAT IT PRODUCES AS IT MOVES OUT LATER TODAY WILL DEPEND MUCH ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE DOING A PARTICULARLY STELLAR JOB HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION. MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY HAVE MOVED NORTHEASTWARD. WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BEFORE SENDING EVERYTHING OUT...BUT THINK THAT WIDELY SCATTERED REMNANTS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT AND DESTABILIZE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE PUSHING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATION AS TO EXACTLY WHERE. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AND MAIN SFC LOW HEAD IN THAT DIRECTION...SO KEPT POPS MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER. NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA AND THEN WASHING OUT. HAVE SOME LOW POPS LINGERING IN THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL AFTER TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A DRY TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS AND LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S. THE WEAK FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013 NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES AND MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE TIMING OF MINOR SHORTWAVES THROUGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES AND CONVECTION. FOR NOW KEPT POPS PRETTY LOW. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO SASK/MT MONDAY NIGHT SO WENT WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 70S OVER THE NORTH TO THE 80S SOUTH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO LINGER SOME PRECIP OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SO KEPT LOW POPS. HOWEVER...WED/THU LOOK MOSTLY DRY...WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY LATE WEEK. GENERALLY...IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND FLATTEN WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES...AND RIDING THE THICKNESS GRADIENT SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE DOME OF HOT AIR. DO MENTION SOME LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH THIS SORT OF PATTERN IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013 SHOWERS AND VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIP FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED SO JUST KEPT MENTION AT VCTS FOR NOW. CONDITIIONS WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR UNDER THE HEAVIER CELLS. CONVECTION WILL END OVER ALL BUT AROUND KBJI BY AROUND 06Z OR SO. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...JR