222 FXUS62 KILM 030137 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 937 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND ALMOST ALL OF THEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN FLOOD INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA... RESULTING IN FEWER AND FEWER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A DRY FORECAST ANTICIPATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS SUNSHINE BECOMES MORE AND MORE PREVALENT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. LATEST NAM AND SREF INDICATE THE SLUG OF ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA FOR 1 MORE DAY. THIS MOISTURE FEED/LINE IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST NAM AND SREF TO SLOWLY GET SHUNTED WESTWARD AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE WORST CONVECTION TO MAINLY OCCUR WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST STORMS OF THESE LONG "STREAMERS". ROTATION HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED BY THE KLTX 88D AS WELL AS NEIGHBORING RADARS. HOWEVER...THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THESE ROTATING CELLS ARE NOT YOUR NORMAL SIGNATURE FOR TORNADIC STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...THEY HAVE PRODUCED DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURIES THAT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SURVEY BY THE NWS AND/OR LOCAL COUNTY EOCS TO DETERMINE IF IT WAS TORNADIC. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AND OCCASIONALLY PUSH ONSHORE AND INLAND. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE THE HEAVY RAINS WITHIN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE CURRENT LOCATIONS IN EFFECT DURING THE NEXT UPDATE. SREF POP DISTRIBUTION FOR MEASURABLE RAIN HAS BEEN HEAVILY LEANED ON FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE RATHER SOUPY TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA WILL RESULT IN LOWS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AND ALSO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHTS MINS SEEMS LIKE THE WAY TO GO...IE. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...EVER SO GRADUALLY...DRIER AND WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH SYSTEM IS EDGING WESTWARD. THIS CAN ESPECIALLY BE SEEN NOT ONLY IN WATER VAPOR ANIMATIONS BUT ALSO SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS. MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS HAVE HELD A SHARPLY DELINEATED LINE...WHERE GENERALLY OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF BRUNSWICK TO NEW HANOVER TO MOST OF PENDER HAVE NOT RECEIVED A GREAT DEAL OF RAINFALL TODAY DUE TO IMPINGING BERMUDA HIGH. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL LIKELY DROP THESE COUNTIES FROM THE FLOOD WATCH BUT EXTEND THE REMAINING COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BASED ON THE ACTIVITY STILL APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. IF RAINFALL TAPERS OFF MORE IN EARNEST THIS EVENING THEN THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED SOONER THAN MIDNIGHT. SEVERAL OF OUR RIVERS ARE IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH A FEW MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE RISES TO MINOR FLOODING. THESE CAN BE VIEWED AT THE FOLLOWING URL...WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ILM. ALSO A FEW ROAD CLOSURES ASSOCIATED WITH FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORENCE COUNTY. NIGHT-TIME COMMUTERS SHOULD USE CAUTION ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA THIS EVENING. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS WITH SUCH SATURATED GROUNDS AND LOW-LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT RETROGRADES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST...REPLACED BY GRADUALLY DRIER AIR SEEN NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IMPINGING ON THE CAPE HATTERAS AREA AT THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP FROM BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES WED MORNING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY THU MORNING. THE CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VERY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN IN RECENT DAYS...1500 TO 2000 J/KG. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 800 J/KG. EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR ARRIVING IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH AN INVERTED V PROFILE DEVELOPING BELOW 1500 FT. THUS...ANY DEEPER CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHUTTING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE ATLANTIC FEED WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH. WILL CARRY THE LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION... CHANCE...WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN IF NOT COMPLETELY COME TO AN END DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL HAVE A MUCH STRONGER INFLUENCE ON THE AREA BY THURSDAY. GIVEN NO DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT TO ENHANCE LIFT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE SEABREEZE AND DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY ACT TO LIFT AND FOCUS MOISTURE AND WITH STRONG HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...THUS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE NO RAIN ON THU. AGAIN EXPECT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN AND END QUICKLY DURING THE EVE. AS MORE AND MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS...TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE... WARMER ON THU THAN ON WED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS SOME UPPER 80S ON WED SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF 90 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS ON THU. LOWS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL SHIFTING THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE CENTER BEING OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING SHUNTED TO THE WEST AND THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROPPING FROM ABOVE 2 INCHES TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON THE SURFACE BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT TO SEE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE CLOUDS DECREASING AND AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES AND TO THE 91 TO 94 DEGREE RANGE INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS STILL ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE COULD MOVE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TERMS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THRU THE EVENING HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR IN SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT WILL BE INLAND WHERE PCPN HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT TODAY. ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS BEFORE DAYBREAK ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ON WEDNESDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. STILL HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR KILM/KMYR/KCRE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...WITH SHRA/TSRA MORE LIKELY INLAND THRU THE AFTN HOURS. TEMPO MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES A SOLID 3 TO 5 FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...COMBINED WITH SE-S WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. PERIODS WILL RUN 5 TO 8 SECONDS...BORDERING ON SWELL CRITERIA. WITH THE CENTER OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH ALONG THE 33-35 DEGREE LATITUDE...A LENGTHY E TO W FETCH WILL EXIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BERMUDA HIGH. COMBINED WITH LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL HOLD SOLID IN A 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THRUOUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT REMAINS ACTIVE FOR ALL WATERS FOR 5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. TSTMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE SC WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE NC WATERS. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL MOSTLY BE SOUTH WAVES 3-5 FEET IN 6-8 SECONDS INTERVALS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE BERMUDA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EXPAND ACROSS THE WATERS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM 3 TO 5 FT ON WED TO 3 TO 4 FT ON THU. A WEAK 9 TO 10 SECOND SE SWELL WILL DEVELOP BY THU. THERE IS ONLY THE SMALLEST RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WATERS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SEE THE WINDS BLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET ON FRIDAY AND SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032- 033-039-053>056. NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...DL/MRR