475 
FXUS63 KILX 302345
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
645 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 222 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013

LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS PIVOTING SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. HAVE ALREADY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN
LAWRENCEVILLE. SHOWERS WERE VERY SPOTTY WEST OF I-55...WHERE THERE
HAS BEEN A BIT MORE SUNSHINE. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE
STRUGGLING TO RISE THROUGH THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE THE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOST NUMEROUS...WITH MID 70S MORE COMMON
ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE THE TIMING OF THE
DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES...UNTIL THIS UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS
THE AREA. 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...

UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR THE MISSOURI/
ARKANSAS BORDER BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL
SLOWLY BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE STRONG RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR DAILY WHILE THIS FEATURE IS IN THE
AREA. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO AROUND 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS...WHERE WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE RAIN WILL BE MORE COMMON. BY THE 4TH OF 
JULY...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND
80.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MAIN UPPER STORM TRACK TO FOCUS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOW ANY
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE U.S. THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE REMNANTS OF OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THESE WOULD MAINLY
IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
TAD BELOW NORMAL...BUT INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMPENSATE
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME DOMINANT.

GEELHART


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
DIURNAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WILL HOLD ON TO VCSH AT BOTH KDEC
AND KCMI THROUGH 02Z BUT WILL GO DRY AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT...FROM THE N/NE AT LESS THAN 10KT.
WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING IN THE VICINITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CU-RULE SUGGEST THE MOST
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP FURTHER E/SE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE BKN CEILINGS AT
AROUND 5000FT ALONG WITH VCSH AT BOTH KDEC AND KCMI AFTER 17Z.
FURTHER WEST...WILL ONLY CARRY SCT CLOUD COVER AND MAKE NO MENTION
OF SHOWERS. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE BRISK SIDE...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. 

BARNES
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$