454 
FXUS64 KMEG 301102
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
602 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...COURTESY OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS
UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER IL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS ON
TRACK TO DROP INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING 700MB TEMPS AROUND 4C... AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND
MINUS 13C...RESULTING IN WEAK/NIL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. GFS AND
NAM MODELS ESTIMATE MARGINAL 850MB TO 500MB LAPSE RATES... AROUND
6C/KM...SO LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY
WOBBLE SOME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. CONCURRENTLY...A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE MIDSOUTH...
WITH WEEKEND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN REDUCED DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
WITH WEAK SHEAR AND ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO PEAK WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE EARLY WEEK UPPER LOW OUT OF THE PICTURE...
LATE WEEK TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY JULY VALUES...
TEMPERED A BIT BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHRA/TSRAS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...WILL 
MENTION VCTS AT KMEM...KMKL AND KJBR. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. A FEW LOW CLOUDS MAY GET INTO KJBR THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDTIONS THROUGH 6Z. THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. N OR NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 KTS THIS MORNING AND
WILL DIMINISH AFTER 1-2Z.

KRM

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  82  66  81  64 /  30  20  40  20 
MKL  80  62  80  62 /  50  20  40  20 
JBR  83  65  81  62 /  40  20  30  20 
TUP  86  64  84  64 /  20  20  40  20 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$