169 
FXUS64 KHUN 281942
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
242 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT HAD
MOVED SOUTHWARD TO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING EAST AND NORTHEAST ALONG
THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER...SOUTHEAST OF PADUCAH TO NEAR
NASHVILLE AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
WILL STILL KEEP IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL INTERACT WITH A
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. 

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INVOLVING CLEARING OUT THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...AS A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MODELS INVOLVING HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY. 

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO WELL ADVERTISE THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF INITIALLY DEVELOP A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE AND MOVE IT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY
BACKED OFF ON THE PROBABILITY. AFTER MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE DIFFERING WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. 

BOTH MODELS SLOWLY INDICATE THAT THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD WEAKEN BY THURSDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IN AT LEAST A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POP THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED UNSETTLED PATTERN ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARIES MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS INVOLVING TEMPS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1206 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS... THE NEAR TERM CHC OF TSRA HAS DIMINISHED. LINGERING
HIGH OVERCAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED (~SCT050 AGL). REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA IS PSBL
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING IN WESTERN TN WHICH MAY
DROP SE INTO NORTHERN AL OVERNIGHT. THE CHC APPEARS TO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS ATTM. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT KMSL DUE TO BR LATE
TNGT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69  90  65  86 /  30  10  10  30 
SHOALS        68  90  64  85 /  20  10  10  30 
VINEMONT      68  89  63  83 /  30  10  10  30 
FAYETTEVILLE  67  88  63  82 /  20  10  10  40 
ALBERTVILLE   68  90  62  84 /  30  10  10  30 
FORT PAYNE    66  89  62  84 /  30  10  10  30 

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$ 

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE 
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.