521 
FXUS63 KLSX 261153
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
653 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE TSRA/SVR CHANCES. 

POPS FOR TODAY AND SVR THREAT WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY WHAT 
ONGOING TSRA DOES THRU SUNRISE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CLUSTER OF 
TSRA OVER N CENTRAL MO WILL BEGIN TO BOW OVER ERN MO INTO W CENTRAL 
AND SW IL THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE ALONG RESIDUAL 
OUTFLOW. LATER THIS MORNING...SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR NWRN MO 
WILL MOVE EWD AND TRAVEL SEWD IN CENTRAL IL LATER TODAY. WITH THE 
CWA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...WUD EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF 
TSRA DURING THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES 
THRU THE REGION. AS FOR IF THE SECOND ROUND WILL BE SVR...IF IT 
DEVELOPS...IS STILL UNCERTAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE 
ALONG/NEAR WHATEVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THE ONGOING CONVECTION LEAVES 
BEHIND. ATTM...IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHERE EXACTLY THAT WILL BE. 

REGARDLESS...BELIEVE THE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND SHUD LIMIT ANY TSRA OVER THE CWA.  
BOTTOM LINE FOR POPS TODAY...STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. 

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE BEEN FORECASTING TEMPS TOO WARM BY A COUPLE OF 
DEGREES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE FINALLY GIVEN IN TO THE 
MOS GUIDANCE AND COOLED TEMPS A BIT FOR TODAY. TRENDED COOLER ACROSS 
THE ERN COUNTIES WHERE CLOUD COVER SHUD LINGER LONGER TODAY.


TILLY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) 
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

MDLS SUGGEST TSRA DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB DURING THE DAY THURS
WITH A S/W EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLOW. THIS S/W MAY GENERATE TSRA AS
FAR E AS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE THURS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHUD CONTINUE INTO THURS NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DROPS SSEWD.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HOW FAR E TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS SOMEWHAT LOW ATTM. 

NOT MANY CHANGES TO TEMPS FROM THE PREV FORECAST...BUT TEMPS SHUD
SLOWLY COOL INTO THE WEEKEND.  

FOR THE EXTD...MDLS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER
LOW THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...HAVE KEPT TEMPS
TRENDING COOLER AND KEPT POPS LOW EXCEPT WHERE MDLS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. 

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXITING TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SECOND AREA OF STORMS NORTH OF KUIN MAY REACH THERE BY AROUND
13Z...SO HAVE INCLUDED TSRA FOR THAT TAF SITE...HOWEVER THAT STORM
CLUSTER SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AND NOT MAKE IT INTO THE
KSTL AREA TAF SITES. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST
MISSOURI WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHEAST OF TAF
SITES...SO WILL GO VFR. 

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE KSTL TAF SITE. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

BROWNING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX